WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
6 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-0-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 5.5
FanDuel
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-1.2
Model win
79.5%
No-vig market
54.6%
No-vig edge
+24.9%
Model-implied EV
+36.3%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
UNDER 66.5
FanDuel
Projection
55.1
Proj. gap
-11.4
Model win
76.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.6%
Model-implied EV
+43.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 53 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 42.5
FanDuel
Projection
71.3
Proj. gap
+28.8
Model win
76.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.6%
Model-implied EV
+43.8%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 55 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 205.5
FanDuel
Projection
165.4
Proj. gap
-40.1
Model win
70.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.9%
Model-implied EV
+33.1%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 164 passing yards
WIN
OVER 75.5
FanDuel
Projection
92.6
Proj. gap
+17.1
Model win
58.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+8.3%
Model-implied EV
+9.4%
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 83 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 214.5
FanDuel
Projection
201.2
Proj. gap
-13.3
Model win
57.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+7.9%
Model-implied EV
+8.8%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 203 passing yards