Published Record
1-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Bo Nix NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Bo Nix. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
33.3%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
17
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.2Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 208.5
Projection 214.4Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 14.5
Projection 25.6Cleared line 13%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -225
Projection1.2
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge-4.9%
Model-implied EV-13.2%
No-vig market65.0%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 208.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection214.4
Model win52.1%
No-vig edge+2.1%
Model-implied EV-1.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 14.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection25.6
Model win50.1%
No-vig edge+0.1%
Model-implied EV-5.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -144
Projection1.2
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+1.8%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 221.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection239.5
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+6.0%
Model-implied EV+5.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 12.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection26.6
Model win54.6%
No-vig edge+4.6%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -235
Projection1.2
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-14.4%
No-vig market65.6%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 202.5
OVER 202.5 -114
Projection227.2
Model win58.7%
No-vig edge+8.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.7 above line
Market 202.5
PDR 227.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 227.2 is 24.7 above the 202.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 12.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection25.4
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -138
Projection1.2
Model win61.4%
No-vig edge+7.2%
Model-implied EV+6.0%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 61.4% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +7.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.4% model win, +7.2% no-vig edge, and +6.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 223.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection223.1
Model win51.0%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 14.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection26.1
Model win51.0%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -154
Projection1.2
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+3.0%
Model-implied EV-1.6%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 221.5
OVER 221.5 -114
Projection247.2
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.7 above line
Market 221.5
PDR 247.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 247.2 is 25.7 above the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection25.5
Model win43.7%
No-vig edge-6.3%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -154
Projection1.2
Model win61.4%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 219.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection217.9
Model win51.7%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-2.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Passing yards | OVER 202.5 | 58.7% | +8.7% | +10.2% | LOSS · 107 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 61.4% | +7.2% | +6.0% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing yards | OVER 221.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | LOSS · 214 passing yards | Game |