Published Record
6-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Joe Burrow NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Joe Burrow. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 2.5
Projection 2.5Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 272.5
Projection 244.0Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: UNDER -170
Projection2.5
Model win55.0%
No-vig edge-4.1%
Model-implied EV-12.6%
No-vig market59.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 272.5
UNDER 272.5 -113
Projection244.0
Model win63.6%
No-vig edge+13.6%
Model-implied EV+19.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
28.5 below line
Market 272.5
PDR 244.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 244.0 is 28.5 below the 272.5 line.
Model win probability 63.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.6% model win, +13.6% no-vig edge, and +19.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -188
Projection2.7
Model win80.6%
No-vig edge+19.6%
Model-implied EV+23.5%
No-vig market61.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.7 is 1.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 80.6% vs 61.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 80.6% model win, +19.6% no-vig edge, and +23.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 260.5
OVER 260.5 -114
Projection293.5
Model win62.4%
No-vig edge+12.4%
Model-implied EV+17.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
33.0 above line
Market 260.5
PDR 293.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 293.5 is 33.0 above the 260.5 line.
Model win probability 62.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.4% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +17.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -154
Projection2.5
Model win72.7%
No-vig edge+16.0%
Model-implied EV+19.9%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.5 is 1.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +16.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +16.0% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 235.5
OVER 235.5 -114
Projection260.9
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.4 above line
Market 235.5
PDR 260.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 260.9 is 25.4 above the 235.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -200
Projection2.6
Model win77.5%
No-vig edge+15.2%
Model-implied EV+16.3%
No-vig market62.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.6 is 1.1 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 62.3% no-vig market probability creates a +15.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +15.2% no-vig edge, and +16.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 267.5
UNDER 267.5 -114
Projection241.2
Model win63.2%
No-vig edge+13.2%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.3 below line
Market 267.5
PDR 241.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 241.2 is 26.3 below the 267.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -102
Projection2.5
Model win76.4%
No-vig edge+29.2%
Model-implied EV+51.2%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.5 is 1.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +29.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +29.2% no-vig edge, and +51.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 253.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection257.6
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -118
Projection2.6
Model win78.1%
No-vig edge+27.5%
Model-implied EV+44.3%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.6 is 1.1 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 78.1% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +27.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 78.1% model win, +27.5% no-vig edge, and +44.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 247.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection256.5
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing yards | UNDER 272.5 | 63.6% | +13.6% | +19.8% | LOSS · 462 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 80.6% | +19.6% | +23.5% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 7 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing yards | OVER 260.5 | 62.4% | +12.4% | +17.1% | WIN · 292 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 72.7% | +16.0% | +19.9% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Passing yards | OVER 235.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | LOSS · 190 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 77.5% | +15.2% | +16.3% | LOSS · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing yards | UNDER 267.5 | 63.2% | +13.2% | +18.6% | LOSS · 428 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 76.4% | +29.2% | +51.2% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 78.1% | +27.5% | +44.3% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing yards | UNDER 267.5 | 61.0% | +11.0% | +14.6% | WIN · 254 passing yards | Game |