Published Record
3-0-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Michael Mayer NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Michael Mayer. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
100.0%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 2.5
Projection 3.6Cleared line 88%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 25.5
Projection 42.3Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -168
Projection3.6
Model win54.3%
No-vig edge-4.3%
Model-implied EV-13.4%
No-vig market58.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 25.5
OVER 25.5 -113
Projection42.3
Model win58.2%
No-vig edge+8.2%
Model-implied EV+9.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.8 above line
Market 25.5
PDR 42.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 42.3 is 16.8 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 58.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.2% model win, +8.2% no-vig edge, and +9.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection3.5
Model win36.7%
No-vig edge-17.5%
Model-implied EV-36.7%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 30.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection37.1
Model win41.9%
No-vig edge-8.1%
Model-implied EV-21.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection3.1
Model win46.6%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-22.0%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 27.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection30.5
Model win37.3%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -114
Projection2.9
Model win73.3%
No-vig edge+23.3%
Model-implied EV+37.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 28.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection30.7
Model win36.3%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -118
Projection3.5
Model win53.6%
No-vig edge+3.0%
Model-implied EV-1.0%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection35.5
Model win57.1%
No-vig edge+7.1%
Model-implied EV+7.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | OVER 25.5 | 58.2% | +8.2% | +9.7% | WIN · 53 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 73.3% | +23.3% | +37.6% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 1 | Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving yards | OVER 17.5 | 59.5% | +9.5% | +11.6% | WIN · 32 receiving yards | Game |