Published Record
8-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Michael Wilson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Michael Wilson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
12
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 4.5
Projection 5.5Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 56.5
Projection 85.4Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -118
Projection5.5
Model win53.7%
No-vig edge+3.1%
Model-implied EV-0.8%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 56.5
OVER 56.5 -113
Projection85.4
Model win76.6%
No-vig edge+26.6%
Model-implied EV+44.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
28.9 above line
Market 56.5
PDR 85.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 85.4 is 28.9 above the 56.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +44.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +116
Projection5.1
Model win46.6%
No-vig edge+3.3%
Model-implied EV+0.6%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 47.5
OVER 47.5 -114
Projection73.7
Model win72.7%
No-vig edge+22.7%
Model-implied EV+36.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.2 above line
Market 47.5
PDR 73.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 73.7 is 26.2 above the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -152
Projection5.4
Model win65.6%
No-vig edge+9.3%
Model-implied EV+8.8%
No-vig market56.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.4 is 0.1 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 65.6% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +9.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.6% model win, +9.3% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 57.5
OVER 57.5 -114
Projection81.8
Model win69.9%
No-vig edge+19.9%
Model-implied EV+31.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.3 above line
Market 57.5
PDR 81.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 81.8 is 24.3 above the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 69.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.9% model win, +19.9% no-vig edge, and +31.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -130
Projection4.7
Model win75.4%
No-vig edge+22.6%
Model-implied EV+33.4%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +22.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +22.6% no-vig edge, and +33.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 67.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection67.9
Model win33.6%
No-vig edge-16.4%
Model-implied EV-36.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -148
Projection5.1
Model win71.2%
No-vig edge+15.3%
Model-implied EV+19.3%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.1 is 0.4 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +15.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +15.3% no-vig edge, and +19.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 57.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection73.9
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+7.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -148
Projection5.6
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+18.1%
Model-implied EV+24.0%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.1 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.6 is 2.1 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +18.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +18.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 44.5
OVER 44.5 -114
Projection87.7
Model win91.5%
No-vig edge+41.5%
Model-implied EV+71.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
43.2 above line
Market 44.5
PDR 87.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 87.7 is 43.2 above the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 91.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.5% model win, +41.5% no-vig edge, and +71.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -132
Projection5.2
Model win66.3%
No-vig edge+13.1%
Model-implied EV+16.6%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.2 is 1.7 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.3% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.3% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +16.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 37.5
OVER 37.5 -114
Projection80.4
Model win91.2%
No-vig edge+41.2%
Model-implied EV+71.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
42.9 above line
Market 37.5
PDR 80.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 80.4 is 42.9 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 91.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.2% model win, +41.2% no-vig edge, and +71.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | OVER 56.5 | 76.6% | +26.6% | +44.5% | WIN · 111 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | Receiving yards | OVER 47.5 | 72.7% | +22.7% | +36.6% | WIN · 55 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 65.6% | +9.3% | +8.8% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | Receiving yards | OVER 57.5 | 69.9% | +19.9% | +31.2% | LOSS · 32 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 75.4% | +22.6% | +33.4% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 71.2% | +15.3% | +19.3% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 74.0% | +18.1% | +24.0% | WIN · 11 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | OVER 44.5 | 91.5% | +41.5% | +71.7% | WIN · 89 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 66.3% | +13.1% | +16.6% | LOSS · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | Receiving yards | OVER 37.5 | 91.2% | +41.2% | +71.2% | LOSS · 18 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 63.6% | +12.2% | +15.8% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving yards | OVER 41.5 | 89.3% | +39.3% | +67.6% | WIN · 56 receiving yards | Game |