WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

12 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-7-0

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 12 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 72.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +24.7% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +42.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Jones

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 29.5

FanDuel

Projection 72.5

Proj. gap +43.0

Model win 89.3%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +39.3%

Model-implied EV +67.7%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 40 rushing yards

#2 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Love

Passing yards

LOSS

UNDER 238.5

FanDuel

Projection 169.6

Proj. gap -68.9

Model win 81.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +31.2%

Model-implied EV +52.4%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 387 passing yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Jauan Jennings

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 23.5

FanDuel

Projection 54.3

Proj. gap +30.8

Model win 79.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +29.1%

Model-implied EV +48.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 0 receiving yards

#4 MODEL PLAY

Justin Jefferson

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 73.5

FanDuel

Projection 63.2

Proj. gap -10.3

Model win 75.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.7%

Model-implied EV +42.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 92 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Mason

Rushing yards

WIN

OVER 43.5

FanDuel

Projection 69.1

Proj. gap +25.6

Model win 70.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +20.7%

Model-implied EV +32.8%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 59 rushing yards

#6 MODEL PLAY

Tucker Kraft

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 70.4%

No-vig market 41.0%

No-vig edge +29.5%

Model-implied EV +60.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 3 receptions

#7 MODEL PLAY

Justin Jefferson

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 5.5

FanDuel

Projection 5.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 70.0%

No-vig market 44.1%

No-vig edge +25.8%

Model-implied EV +48.3%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 8 receptions

#8 MODEL PLAY

T.J. Hockenson

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 69.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +19.8%

Model-implied EV +31.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 4 receptions

#9 MODEL PLAY

Christian Watson

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 54.5

FanDuel

Projection 53.8

Proj. gap -0.7

Model win 67.4%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +17.4%

Model-implied EV +26.5%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 147 receiving yards

#10 MODEL PLAY

Jauan Jennings

Receptions

LOSS

OVER 2.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.2

Proj. gap +1.7

Model win 67.3%

No-vig market 40.2%

No-vig edge +27.1%

Model-implied EV +56.2%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 0 receptions

#11 MODEL PLAY

Kyler Murray

Passing yards

WIN

UNDER 221.5

FanDuel

Projection 188.4

Proj. gap -33.1

Model win 66.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +16.1%

Model-implied EV +24.1%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 18 passing yards

#12 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Jones

Receptions

WIN

UNDER 2.5

FanDuel

Projection 2.5

Proj. gap -0.0

Model win 63.7%

No-vig market 49.0%

No-vig edge +14.7%

Model-implied EV +21.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 0 receptions