Published Record
3-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jayden Daniels NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jayden Daniels. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
11
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 0.9Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 198.5
Projection 163.3Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 36.5
Projection 40.0Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Nov 1, 6:20 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -164
Projection0.9
Model win68.0%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
No-vig market58.3%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 0.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 198.5
UNDER 198.5 -113
Projection163.3
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+17.8%
Model-implied EV+27.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
35.2 below line
Market 198.5
PDR 163.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 163.3 is 35.2 below the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 36.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection40.0
Model win41.3%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -158
Projection0.9
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+10.7%
Model-implied EV+10.8%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 0.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +10.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 205.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection201.4
Model win53.1%
No-vig edge+3.1%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 35.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection37.1
Model win39.6%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -148
Projection0.9
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+12.4%
Model-implied EV+14.3%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 0.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +14.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 198.5
UNDER 198.5 -114
Projection147.9
Model win75.2%
No-vig edge+25.2%
Model-implied EV+41.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
50.6 below line
Market 198.5
PDR 147.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 147.9 is 50.6 below the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 30.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection38.5
Model win46.0%
No-vig edge-4.0%
Model-implied EV-13.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -192
Projection0.9
Model win68.0%
No-vig edge+6.6%
Model-implied EV+3.5%
No-vig market61.4%
Samples516
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 196.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection191.1
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+3.9%
Model-implied EV+1.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 68.0% | +9.7% | +9.5% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 8 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders | Passing yards | UNDER 198.5 | 67.8% | +17.8% | +27.9% | LOSS · 217 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 67.8% | +10.7% | +10.8% | LOSS · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 68.2% | +12.4% | +14.3% | WIN · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 5 | New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | Passing yards | UNDER 198.5 | 75.2% | +25.2% | +41.2% | LOSS · 199 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Passing yards | UNDER 205.5 | 70.9% | +20.9% | +33.1% | WIN · 164 passing yards | Game |