Published Record
2-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Isaac TeSlaa NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Isaac TeSlaa. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
40.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -144
Projection3.1
Model win65.5%
No-vig edge+10.4%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.1 is 1.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 65.5% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.5% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
OVER 24.5 -114
Projection43.3
Model win61.1%
No-vig edge+11.1%
Model-implied EV+14.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.8 above line
Market 24.5
PDR 43.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 43.3 is 18.8 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 61.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.1% model win, +11.1% no-vig edge, and +14.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER +118
Projection3.3
Model win50.6%
No-vig edge+7.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 26.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection35.4
Model win45.8%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -108
Projection2.9
Model win61.1%
No-vig edge+12.5%
Model-implied EV+17.7%
No-vig market48.6%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.9 is 1.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 61.1% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +12.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.1% model win, +12.5% no-vig edge, and +17.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 17.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection33.6
Model win57.2%
No-vig edge+7.2%
Model-implied EV+7.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +128
Projection2.7
Model win56.4%
No-vig edge+15.5%
Model-implied EV+28.6%
No-vig market41.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 14.5
OVER 14.5 -114
Projection31.1
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+7.9%
Model-implied EV+8.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.6 above line
Market 14.5
PDR 31.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 31.1 is 16.6 above the 14.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +7.9% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 65.5% | +10.4% | +11.0% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | OVER 24.5 | 61.1% | +11.1% | +14.8% | LOSS · 10 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 61.1% | +12.5% | +17.7% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | OVER 14.5 | 57.9% | +7.9% | +8.8% | WIN · 26 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | OVER 16.5 | 62.3% | +12.3% | +16.9% | LOSS · 0 receiving yards | Game |