Published Record
6-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Kyren Williams NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Kyren Williams. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
9
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 58.5
Projection 67.0Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 2.1Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 23.5
Projection 17.5Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Nov 1, 2:05 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 58.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection67.0
Model win46.5%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-12.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -152
Projection2.1
Model win81.6%
No-vig edge+25.2%
Model-implied EV+35.2%
No-vig market56.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.1 is 1.4 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 81.6% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.6% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +35.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 23.5
UNDER 23.5 -113
Projection17.5
Model win72.4%
No-vig edge+22.4%
Model-implied EV+36.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.0 below line
Market 23.5
PDR 17.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 17.5 is 6.0 below the 23.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +36.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 63.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection71.4
Model win45.7%
No-vig edge-4.3%
Model-implied EV-14.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -114
Projection2.9
Model win73.3%
No-vig edge+23.3%
Model-implied EV+37.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
UNDER 24.5 -114
Projection19.9
Model win70.8%
No-vig edge+20.8%
Model-implied EV+32.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.6 below line
Market 24.5
PDR 19.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 19.9 is 4.6 below the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 70.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.8% model win, +20.8% no-vig edge, and +32.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 69.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection80.7
Model win50.5%
No-vig edge+0.5%
Model-implied EV-5.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -180
Projection2.9
Model win73.0%
No-vig edge+13.0%
Model-implied EV+13.6%
No-vig market60.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 73.0% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +13.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.0% model win, +13.0% no-vig edge, and +13.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 22.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection28.2
Model win40.8%
No-vig edge-9.2%
Model-implied EV-23.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 69.5
UNDER 69.5 -114
Projection69.3
Model win62.8%
No-vig edge+12.8%
Model-implied EV+17.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 69.5
PDR 69.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 69.3 is 0.2 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 62.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.8% model win, +12.8% no-vig edge, and +17.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 +128
Projection2.4
Model win64.6%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+47.2%
No-vig market41.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.4 is 0.1 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 41.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +47.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 19.5
UNDER 19.5 -114
Projection18.4
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+17.8%
Model-implied EV+27.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 19.5
PDR 18.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 18.4 is 1.1 below the 19.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 58.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection74.1
Model win56.4%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Sep 21, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 62.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection77.1
Model win55.0%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+3.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 81.6% | +25.2% | +35.2% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 8 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | Receiving yards | UNDER 23.5 | 72.4% | +22.4% | +36.5% | WIN · 3 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 73.3% | +23.3% | +37.6% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving yards | UNDER 24.5 | 70.8% | +20.8% | +32.9% | WIN · 22 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 73.0% | +13.0% | +13.6% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Rushing yards | UNDER 69.5 | 62.8% | +12.8% | +17.9% | WIN · 49 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | UNDER 2.5 | 64.6% | +23.6% | +47.2% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | Receiving yards | UNDER 19.5 | 67.8% | +17.8% | +27.2% | LOSS · 27 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Rushing yards | OVER 55.5 | 60.1% | +10.1% | +12.7% | LOSS · 41 rushing yards | Game |