WEEK 1 · Wed, Sep 9, 7:20 PM CDT
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
7 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-5-0 - 1 void
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
VOID
OVER 24.5
FanDuel
Projection
56.8
Proj. gap
+32.3
Model win
78.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+28.4%
Model-implied EV
+47.2%
Historical residual sample: 796
LOSS
OVER 36.5
FanDuel
Projection
60.4
Proj. gap
+23.9
Model win
69.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+19.2%
Model-implied EV
+29.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 82.5
FanDuel
Projection
82.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
67.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.1%
Model-implied EV
+26.0%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 122 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 60.5
FanDuel
Projection
82.6
Proj. gap
+22.1
Model win
66.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.2%
Model-implied EV
+24.4%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 26 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 228.5
FanDuel
Projection
195.3
Proj. gap
-33.2
Model win
66.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.1%
Model-implied EV
+24.1%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 13 passing yards
LOSS
OVER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection
2.1
Proj. gap
+0.6
Model win
65.5%
No-vig market
39.9%
No-vig edge
+25.6%
Model-implied EV
+53.3%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
FanDuel
Projection
6.5
Proj. gap
-0.0
Model win
64.2%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+11.3%
Model-implied EV
+13.5%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 8 receptions