Published Record
4-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Keon Coleman NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Keon Coleman. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
6
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 2.5
Projection 3.8Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 29.5
Projection 52.8Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
OVER 2.5 +118
Projection3.8
Model win57.7%
No-vig edge+14.9%
Model-implied EV+25.8%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 2.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.8 is 1.3 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 57.7% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.7% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +25.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 29.5
OVER 29.5 -113
Projection52.8
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.3 above line
Market 29.5
PDR 52.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 52.8 is 23.3 above the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -102
Projection3.1
Model win64.0%
No-vig edge+16.8%
Model-implied EV+26.8%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 3.1 is 1.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.0% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.0% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +26.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 12.5
OVER 12.5 -114
Projection36.6
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+19.5%
Model-implied EV+30.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.1 above line
Market 12.5
PDR 36.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 36.6 is 24.1 above the 12.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +30.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +172
Projection2.8
Model win59.2%
No-vig edge+24.8%
Model-implied EV+61.0%
No-vig market34.4%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.2% vs 34.4% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.2% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +61.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 11.5
OVER 11.5 -114
Projection31.8
Model win63.2%
No-vig edge+13.2%
Model-implied EV+18.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.3 above line
Market 11.5
PDR 31.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 31.8 is 20.3 above the 11.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | OVER 2.5 | 57.7% | +14.9% | +25.8% | LOSS · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | OVER 29.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.6% | LOSS · 4 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 64.0% | +16.8% | +26.8% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | OVER 12.5 | 69.5% | +19.5% | +30.4% | WIN · 116 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receptions | OVER 1.5 | 59.2% | +24.8% | +61.0% | WIN · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Receiving yards | OVER 11.5 | 63.2% | +13.2% | +18.6% | WIN · 63 receiving yards | Game |