Published Record
1-0-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Michael Penix Jr. NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Michael Penix Jr.. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
100.0%
Published Plays
1
Modeled Lines Stored
4
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.2Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 229.5
Projection 211.7Cleared line 100%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -188
Projection1.2
Model win60.1%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.0%
No-vig market61.2%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 229.5
UNDER 229.5 -113
Projection211.7
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.8 below line
Market 229.5
PDR 211.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 211.7 is 17.8 below the 229.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -178
Projection1.2
Model win59.5%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-7.1%
No-vig market59.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 227.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection234.1
Model win52.3%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing yards | UNDER 229.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.5% | WIN · 125 passing yards | Game |