Published Record
2-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Ja'Marr Chase NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Ja'Marr Chase. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 6.5
Projection 6.9Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 79.5
Projection 83.7Cleared line 33%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection6.9
Model win42.5%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-24.8%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 79.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection83.7
Model win39.0%
No-vig edge-11.0%
Model-implied EV-26.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection7.8
Model win58.2%
No-vig edge-0.9%
Model-implied EV-8.0%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 79.5
OVER 79.5 -114
Projection97.4
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.9 above line
Market 79.5
PDR 97.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 97.4 is 17.9 above the 79.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -132
Projection6.6
Model win38.2%
No-vig edge-15.0%
Model-implied EV-32.8%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 78.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection79.4
Model win34.4%
No-vig edge-15.6%
Model-implied EV-35.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection6.8
Model win41.1%
No-vig edge-13.1%
Model-implied EV-29.1%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 76.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection86.8
Model win48.0%
No-vig edge-2.0%
Model-implied EV-10.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | Receiving yards | OVER 79.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.1% | LOSS · 62 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | UNDER 7.5 | 74.0% | +17.3% | +22.1% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving yards | UNDER 85.5 | 68.0% | +18.0% | +27.7% | WIN · 12 receiving yards | Game |