Published Record
4-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Josh Downs NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Josh Downs. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
66.7%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 3.5
Projection 3.7Cleared line 57%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 32.5
Projection 45.8Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +114
Projection3.7
Model win38.5%
No-vig edge-5.4%
Model-implied EV-17.6%
No-vig market43.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 32.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection45.8
Model win52.3%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -166
Projection4.1
Model win46.1%
No-vig edge-12.2%
Model-implied EV-26.1%
No-vig market58.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 46.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection52.2
Model win40.8%
No-vig edge-9.2%
Model-implied EV-23.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +128
Projection3.9
Model win73.1%
No-vig edge+32.2%
Model-implied EV+66.7%
No-vig market41.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.9 is 0.6 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 73.1% vs 41.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.1% model win, +32.2% no-vig edge, and +66.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 58.5
UNDER 58.5 -114
Projection54.5
Model win70.5%
No-vig edge+20.5%
Model-implied EV+32.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.0 below line
Market 58.5
PDR 54.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 54.5 is 4.0 below the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +32.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -162
Projection4.2
Model win80.6%
No-vig edge+22.7%
Model-implied EV+30.3%
No-vig market57.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.3 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 1.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.6% vs 57.9% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.6% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +30.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 64.5
UNDER 64.5 -114
Projection51.7
Model win77.8%
No-vig edge+27.8%
Model-implied EV+46.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
12.8 below line
Market 64.5
PDR 51.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 51.7 is 12.8 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 77.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.8% model win, +27.8% no-vig edge, and +46.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +104
Projection3.9
Model win73.7%
No-vig edge+27.9%
Model-implied EV+50.3%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.9 is 0.6 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 73.7% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +27.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.7% model win, +27.9% no-vig edge, and +50.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 51.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection56.2
Model win39.5%
No-vig edge-10.5%
Model-implied EV-25.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -122
Projection3.5
Model win36.8%
No-vig edge-14.9%
Model-implied EV-33.1%
No-vig market51.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 36.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection42.7
Model win41.6%
No-vig edge-8.4%
Model-implied EV-21.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 73.1% | +32.2% | +66.7% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | UNDER 58.5 | 70.5% | +20.5% | +32.4% | WIN · 47 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 80.6% | +22.7% | +30.3% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | UNDER 64.5 | 77.8% | +27.8% | +46.0% | WIN · 16 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 73.7% | +27.9% | +50.3% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | OVER 43.5 | 58.3% | +8.3% | +9.5% | LOSS · 37 receiving yards | Game |