Published Record
3-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Tucker Kraft NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Tucker Kraft. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
42.9%
Published Plays
7
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 4.5
Projection 4.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 43.5
Projection 60.5Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -122
Projection4.1
Model win69.6%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+26.6%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +26.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 43.5
OVER 43.5 -114
Projection60.5
Model win58.5%
No-vig edge+8.5%
Model-implied EV+9.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.0 above line
Market 43.5
PDR 60.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.5 is 17.0 above the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -205
Projection4.5
Model win52.1%
No-vig edge-10.8%
Model-implied EV-22.5%
No-vig market62.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 46.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection58.9
Model win51.3%
No-vig edge+1.3%
Model-implied EV-3.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -144
Projection3.8
Model win75.3%
No-vig edge+20.1%
Model-implied EV+27.5%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +27.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 46.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection54.9
Model win45.0%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -114
Projection4.2
Model win68.5%
No-vig edge+18.5%
Model-implied EV+28.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 49.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection56.2
Model win42.2%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -146
Projection4.0
Model win45.7%
No-vig edge-9.8%
Model-implied EV-22.9%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 39.5
OVER 39.5 -114
Projection57.2
Model win59.6%
No-vig edge+9.6%
Model-implied EV+11.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.7 above line
Market 39.5
PDR 57.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 57.2 is 17.7 above the 39.5 line.
Model win probability 59.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.6% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +11.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -154
Projection4.5
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-13.5%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 46.5
OVER 46.5 -114
Projection64.9
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.4 above line
Market 46.5
PDR 64.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 64.9 is 18.4 above the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -146
Projection4.3
Model win50.0%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-15.8%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 47.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection63.3
Model win57.1%
No-vig edge+7.1%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 69.6% | +18.2% | +26.6% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | OVER 43.5 | 58.5% | +8.5% | +9.8% | WIN · 53 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 75.3% | +20.1% | +27.5% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 68.5% | +18.5% | +28.5% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | OVER 39.5 | 59.6% | +9.6% | +11.8% | WIN · 42 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | OVER 46.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.6% | LOSS · 26 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 70.4% | +29.5% | +60.6% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |