Published Record
4-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Luther Burden III NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Luther Burden III. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
80.0%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 4.5
Projection 5.1Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 51.5
Projection 75.8Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +118
Projection5.1
Model win47.8%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+4.2%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 51.5
OVER 51.5 -114
Projection75.8
Model win70.1%
No-vig edge+20.1%
Model-implied EV+31.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.3 above line
Market 51.5
PDR 75.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 75.8 is 24.3 above the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection4.6
Model win37.8%
No-vig edge-18.0%
Model-implied EV-36.6%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 56.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection63.3
Model win42.2%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection4.4
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge-7.4%
Model-implied EV-18.4%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 47.5
OVER 47.5 -114
Projection64.1
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+7.9%
Model-implied EV+8.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.6 above line
Market 47.5
PDR 64.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 64.1 is 16.6 above the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +7.9% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -128
Projection4.9
Model win42.8%
No-vig edge-9.6%
Model-implied EV-23.8%
No-vig market52.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 48.5
OVER 48.5 -114
Projection68.5
Model win62.8%
No-vig edge+12.8%
Model-implied EV+17.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
20.0 above line
Market 48.5
PDR 68.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 68.5 is 20.0 above the 48.5 line.
Model win probability 62.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.8% model win, +12.8% no-vig edge, and +17.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER +106
Projection5.2
Model win48.7%
No-vig edge+3.3%
Model-implied EV+0.3%
No-vig market45.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 46.5
OVER 46.5 -114
Projection74.5
Model win75.4%
No-vig edge+25.4%
Model-implied EV+41.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
28.0 above line
Market 46.5
PDR 74.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 74.5 is 28.0 above the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +25.4% no-vig edge, and +41.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +100
Projection4.5
Model win53.6%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
No-vig market46.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 37.5
OVER 37.5 -106
Projection67.6
Model win78.0%
No-vig edge+29.5%
Model-implied EV+51.6%
No-vig market48.5%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.1 above line
Market 37.5
PDR 67.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 67.6 is 30.1 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 78.0% vs 48.5% no-vig market probability creates a +29.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.0% model win, +29.5% no-vig edge, and +51.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -140
Projection4.5
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 48.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection55.8
Model win43.3%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | OVER 51.5 | 70.1% | +20.1% | +31.6% | Pending | Game |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 47.5 | 57.9% | +7.9% | +8.8% | WIN · 95 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | OVER 48.5 | 62.8% | +12.8% | +17.9% | LOSS · 47 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | OVER 46.5 | 75.4% | +25.4% | +41.6% | WIN · 63 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | OVER 37.5 | 78.0% | +29.5% | +51.6% | WIN · 61 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.3% | +9.7% | +10.2% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |