Published Record
5-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Tetairoa McMillan NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Tetairoa McMillan. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 5.5
Projection 4.1Cleared line 67%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 73.5
Projection 60.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -136
Projection4.1
Model win81.3%
No-vig edge+27.5%
Model-implied EV+41.1%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 1.4 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 81.3% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +27.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.3% model win, +27.5% no-vig edge, and +41.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 73.5
UNDER 73.5 -114
Projection60.1
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+28.6%
Model-implied EV+47.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.4 below line
Market 73.5
PDR 60.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 60.1 is 13.4 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -146
Projection3.6
Model win86.5%
No-vig edge+31.1%
Model-implied EV+45.8%
No-vig market55.5%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 3.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.6 is 1.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 86.5% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +31.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.5% model win, +31.1% no-vig edge, and +45.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 69.5
UNDER 69.5 -114
Projection57.8
Model win77.0%
No-vig edge+27.0%
Model-implied EV+44.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
11.7 below line
Market 69.5
PDR 57.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 57.8 is 11.7 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 77.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.0% model win, +27.0% no-vig edge, and +44.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +112
Projection3.5
Model win77.6%
No-vig edge+33.5%
Model-implied EV+64.6%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.5 is 1.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +33.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +33.5% no-vig edge, and +64.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 70.5
UNDER 70.5 -114
Projection48.9
Model win84.3%
No-vig edge+34.3%
Model-implied EV+58.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.6 below line
Market 70.5
PDR 48.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 48.9 is 21.6 below the 70.5 line.
Model win probability 84.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.3% model win, +34.3% no-vig edge, and +58.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +118
Projection3.8
Model win74.1%
No-vig edge+31.3%
Model-implied EV+61.5%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +31.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +31.3% no-vig edge, and +61.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 61.5
UNDER 61.5 -114
Projection51.3
Model win75.6%
No-vig edge+25.6%
Model-implied EV+42.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
10.2 below line
Market 61.5
PDR 51.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 51.3 is 10.2 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 75.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.6% model win, +25.6% no-vig edge, and +42.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -130
Projection3.5
Model win77.6%
No-vig edge+24.8%
Model-implied EV+37.3%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.5 is 1.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 57.5
UNDER 57.5 -114
Projection53.7
Model win70.2%
No-vig edge+20.2%
Model-implied EV+31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.8 below line
Market 57.5
PDR 53.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 53.7 is 3.8 below the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +20.2% no-vig edge, and +31.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 81.3% | +27.5% | +41.1% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | UNDER 73.5 | 78.6% | +28.6% | +47.6% | WIN · 58 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 86.5% | +31.1% | +45.8% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | Receiving yards | UNDER 69.5 | 77.0% | +27.0% | +44.5% | WIN · 40 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.6% | +33.5% | +64.6% | LOSS · 14 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Receiving yards | UNDER 70.5 | 84.3% | +34.3% | +58.2% | LOSS · 192 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 74.1% | +31.3% | +61.5% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns | Receiving yards | UNDER 61.5 | 75.6% | +25.6% | +42.0% | WIN · 17 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 77.6% | +24.8% | +37.3% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | UNDER 57.5 | 70.2% | +20.2% | +31.9% | LOSS · 101 receiving yards | Game |