Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Aaron Jones NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Aaron Jones. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
4
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 5
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 72.5
UNDER 72.5 -114
Projection52.9
Model win80.0%
No-vig edge+30.0%
Model-implied EV+50.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.6 below line
Market 72.5
PDR 52.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 52.9 is 19.6 below the 72.5 line.
Model win probability 80.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 80.0% model win, +30.0% no-vig edge, and +50.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -174
Projection2.6
Model win37.4%
No-vig edge-22.0%
Model-implied EV-41.1%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 18.5
UNDER 18.5 -114
Projection17.9
Model win67.3%
No-vig edge+17.3%
Model-implied EV+26.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 18.5
PDR 17.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 17.9 is 0.6 below the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 67.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.3% model win, +17.3% no-vig edge, and +26.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 67.5
UNDER 67.5 -114
Projection58.9
Model win72.1%
No-vig edge+22.1%
Model-implied EV+35.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.6 below line
Market 67.5
PDR 58.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 58.9 is 8.6 below the 67.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | Rushing yards | UNDER 72.5 | 80.0% | +30.0% | +50.2% | LOSS · 113 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | Receiving yards | UNDER 18.5 | 67.3% | +17.3% | +26.4% | WIN · 4 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | Rushing yards | UNDER 67.5 | 72.1% | +22.1% | +35.4% | LOSS · 94 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Rushing yards | OVER 29.5 | 89.3% | +39.3% | +67.7% | WIN · 40 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 2.5 | 63.7% | +14.7% | +21.6% | WIN · 0 receptions | Game |