Published Record
6-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Justin Jefferson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Justin Jefferson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 5.5
Projection 4.6Cleared line 80%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 76.5
Projection 52.7Cleared line 80%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +112
Projection4.6
Model win77.2%
No-vig edge+33.0%
Model-implied EV+63.6%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.6 is 0.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.2% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +33.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.2% model win, +33.0% no-vig edge, and +63.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 76.5
UNDER 76.5 -114
Projection52.7
Model win85.8%
No-vig edge+35.8%
Model-implied EV+61.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.8 below line
Market 76.5
PDR 52.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 52.7 is 23.8 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 85.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.8% model win, +35.8% no-vig edge, and +61.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +100
Projection5.2
Model win68.0%
No-vig edge+21.2%
Model-implied EV+35.9%
No-vig market46.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.2 is 0.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 46.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +35.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 72.5
UNDER 72.5 -114
Projection67.8
Model win70.9%
No-vig edge+20.9%
Model-implied EV+33.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.7 below line
Market 72.5
PDR 67.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 67.8 is 4.7 below the 72.5 line.
Model win probability 70.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.9% model win, +20.9% no-vig edge, and +33.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +100
Projection4.7
Model win76.2%
No-vig edge+29.4%
Model-implied EV+52.4%
No-vig market46.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.2% vs 46.8% no-vig market probability creates a +29.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.2% model win, +29.4% no-vig edge, and +52.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 68.5
UNDER 68.5 -114
Projection62.1
Model win72.8%
No-vig edge+22.8%
Model-implied EV+36.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.4 below line
Market 68.5
PDR 62.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 62.1 is 6.4 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 72.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.8% model win, +22.8% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 5.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection5.6
Model win38.4%
No-vig edge-17.5%
Model-implied EV-35.7%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 71.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection72.9
Model win35.2%
No-vig edge-14.8%
Model-implied EV-33.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 77.2% | +33.0% | +63.6% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 76.5 | 85.8% | +35.8% | +61.1% | WIN · 33 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 68.0% | +21.2% | +35.9% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Receiving yards | UNDER 72.5 | 70.9% | +20.9% | +33.2% | WIN · 44 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 76.2% | +29.4% | +52.4% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | UNDER 68.5 | 72.8% | +22.8% | +36.6% | WIN · 32 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 70.0% | +25.8% | +48.3% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Receiving yards | UNDER 73.5 | 75.7% | +25.7% | +42.1% | LOSS · 92 receiving yards | Game |