Published Record
5-3-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Tyler Shough NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Tyler Shough. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
62.5%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -188
Projection1.1
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+3.3%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market61.0%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 232.5
OVER 232.5 -114
Projection261.4
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
28.9 above line
Market 232.5
PDR 261.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 261.4 is 28.9 above the 232.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -132
Projection1.0
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+11.1%
Model-implied EV+13.1%
No-vig market53.2%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.0 is 0.5 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +11.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +11.1% no-vig edge, and +13.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 238.5
UNDER 238.5 -114
Projection216.9
Model win61.0%
No-vig edge+11.0%
Model-implied EV+14.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.6 below line
Market 238.5
PDR 216.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 216.9 is 21.6 below the 238.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +11.0% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -205
Projection1.0
Model win64.5%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-4.0%
No-vig market62.9%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 237.5
UNDER 237.5 -114
Projection205.3
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
32.2 below line
Market 237.5
PDR 205.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 205.3 is 32.2 below the 237.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Mon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +118
Projection1.0
Model win64.7%
No-vig edge+21.9%
Model-implied EV+41.1%
No-vig market42.8%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.0 is 0.5 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +21.9% no-vig edge, and +41.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 254.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection248.9
Model win54.1%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -144
Projection1.0
Model win64.7%
No-vig edge+9.6%
Model-implied EV+9.7%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.0 is 0.5 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +9.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 252.5
UNDER 252.5 -114
Projection225.6
Model win63.4%
No-vig edge+13.4%
Model-implied EV+19.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.9 below line
Market 252.5
PDR 225.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 225.6 is 26.9 below the 252.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -220
Projection1.1
Model win64.0%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 240.5
OVER 240.5 -114
Projection284.0
Model win67.4%
No-vig edge+17.4%
Model-implied EV+26.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
43.5 above line
Market 240.5
PDR 284.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 284.0 is 43.5 above the 240.5 line.
Model win probability 67.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.4% model win, +17.4% no-vig edge, and +26.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints | Passing yards | OVER 232.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.5% | WIN · 278 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 64.3% | +11.1% | +13.1% | LOSS · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 6 | New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | Passing yards | UNDER 238.5 | 61.0% | +11.0% | +14.6% | WIN · 144 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | Passing yards | UNDER 237.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 96 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 64.7% | +21.9% | +41.1% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 3 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 64.7% | +9.6% | +9.7% | LOSS · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 3 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | Passing yards | UNDER 252.5 | 63.4% | +13.4% | +19.0% | LOSS · 255 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing yards | OVER 240.5 | 67.4% | +17.4% | +26.6% | WIN · 252 passing yards | Game |