Published Record
3-0-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Pat Freiermuth NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Pat Freiermuth. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
100.0%
Published Plays
3
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 2.5
Projection 3.0Cleared line 67%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 24.5
Projection 36.0Cleared line 83%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -154
Projection3.0
Model win45.2%
No-vig edge-11.5%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 24.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection36.0
Model win49.9%
No-vig edge-0.1%
Model-implied EV-5.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +116
Projection3.5
Model win36.7%
No-vig edge-6.6%
Model-implied EV-20.8%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 27.5
OVER 27.5 -114
Projection50.8
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.3 above line
Market 27.5
PDR 50.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 50.8 is 23.3 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -130
Projection3.0
Model win71.4%
No-vig edge+18.5%
Model-implied EV+26.2%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.0 is 0.5 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +26.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 28.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection36.1
Model win44.0%
No-vig edge-6.0%
Model-implied EV-17.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection3.5
Model win36.7%
No-vig edge-19.2%
Model-implied EV-38.5%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 34.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection39.3
Model win39.7%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | OVER 27.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.1% | WIN · 44 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 71.4% | +18.5% | +26.2% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving yards | OVER 25.5 | 63.6% | +13.6% | +19.4% | WIN · 46 receiving yards | Game |