WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

9 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-7-0 - 1 void

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 68.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +17.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +26.9% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Nico Collins

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 5.5

FanDuel

Projection 4.1

Proj. gap -1.4

Model win 81.4%

No-vig market 53.8%

No-vig edge +27.6%

Model-implied EV +41.3%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 7 receptions

#2 MODEL PLAY

David Montgomery

Rushing yards

LOSS

UNDER 53.5

FanDuel

Projection 39.7

Proj. gap -13.8

Model win 75.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +25.9%

Model-implied EV +42.4%

Historical residual sample: 796

Final: 60 rushing yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

DJ Moore

Receptions

LOSS

UNDER 3.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.1

Proj. gap -0.4

Model win 70.8%

No-vig market 50.6%

No-vig edge +20.2%

Model-implied EV +30.9%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 5 receptions

#4 MODEL PLAY

Nico Collins

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 69.5

FanDuel

Projection 66.1

Proj. gap -3.4

Model win 70.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +20.1%

Model-implied EV +31.6%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 75 receiving yards

#5 MODEL PLAY

Dawson Knox

Receptions

LOSS

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 3.3

Proj. gap +1.8

Model win 69.1%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +19.1%

Model-implied EV +29.7%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 1 reception

#6 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards

LOSS

UNDER 218.5

FanDuel

Projection 181.7

Proj. gap -36.8

Model win 68.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +18.8%

Model-implied EV +29.1%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 274 passing yards

#7 MODEL PLAY

Woody Marks

Rushing yards

VOID

OVER 30.5

FanDuel

Projection 50.8

Proj. gap +20.3

Model win 62.9%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +12.9%

Model-implied EV +18.1%

Historical residual sample: 796

#8 MODEL PLAY

Khalil Shakir

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 36.5

FanDuel

Projection 53.7

Proj. gap +17.2

Model win 58.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +8.7%

Model-implied EV +10.2%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 50 receiving yards

#9 MODEL PLAY

Dawson Knox

Receiving yards

LOSS

OVER 14.5

FanDuel

Projection 31.0

Proj. gap +16.5

Model win 57.8%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +7.8%

Model-implied EV +8.4%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 7 receiving yards