Published Record
1-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Baker Mayfield NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Baker Mayfield. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
2
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.4Cleared line 100%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 215.5
Projection 225.7Cleared line 40%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -144
Projection1.4
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+0.9%
Model-implied EV-4.8%
No-vig market55.3%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 215.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection225.7
Model win52.9%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -210
Projection1.4
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-18.5%
No-vig market63.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 215.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection206.4
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+6.0%
Model-implied EV+5.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -192
Projection1.4
Model win55.8%
No-vig edge-5.6%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
No-vig market61.4%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 216.5
UNDER 216.5 -114
Projection181.2
Model win68.0%
No-vig edge+18.0%
Model-implied EV+27.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
35.3 below line
Market 216.5
PDR 181.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 181.2 is 35.3 below the 216.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +18.0% no-vig edge, and +27.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -110
Projection1.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+7.8%
Model-implied EV+8.4%
No-vig market49.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 210.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection201.6
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+6.0%
Model-implied EV+5.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.