WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 3:25 PM CDT
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
6 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-2-0 - 2 voids
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
VOID
UNDER 62.5
FanDuel
Projection
44.3
Proj. gap
-18.2
Model win
82.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+32.1%
Model-implied EV
+54.2%
Historical residual sample: 2154
WIN
UNDER 4.5
FanDuel
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
77.4%
No-vig market
57.9%
No-vig edge
+19.6%
Model-implied EV
+25.2%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 184.5
FanDuel
Projection
127.1
Proj. gap
-57.4
Model win
77.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+27.3%
Model-implied EV
+45.2%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 220 passing yards
VOID
UNDER 5.5
FanDuel
Projection
4.7
Proj. gap
-0.8
Model win
76.2%
No-vig market
46.2%
No-vig edge
+30.0%
Model-implied EV
+53.9%
Historical residual sample: 2154
LOSS
UNDER 27.5
FanDuel
Projection
26.0
Proj. gap
-1.5
Model win
68.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.3%
Model-implied EV
+28.2%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 30 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 17.5
FanDuel
Projection
35.1
Proj. gap
+17.6
Model win
59.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.5%
Model-implied EV
+11.6%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 32 receiving yards