Published Record
8-8-0
PLAYER PROFILE
CeeDee Lamb NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for CeeDee Lamb. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
16
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 6.5
Projection 5.4Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 80.5
Projection 61.4Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -125
Projection5.4
Model win78.5%
No-vig edge+26.6%
Model-implied EV+41.3%
No-vig market51.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 5.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.4 is 1.1 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 78.5% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.5% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +41.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 80.5
UNDER 80.5 -113
Projection61.4
Model win82.7%
No-vig edge+32.7%
Model-implied EV+55.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.1 below line
Market 80.5
PDR 61.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 61.4 is 19.1 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 82.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.7% model win, +32.7% no-vig edge, and +55.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 7.5
UNDER 7.5 -152
Projection4.7
Model win92.9%
No-vig edge+36.5%
Model-implied EV+53.9%
No-vig market56.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.8 below line
Market 7.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 2.8 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 92.9% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +36.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 92.9% model win, +36.5% no-vig edge, and +53.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 81.5
UNDER 81.5 -114
Projection65.7
Model win80.0%
No-vig edge+30.0%
Model-implied EV+50.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
15.8 below line
Market 81.5
PDR 65.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 65.7 is 15.8 below the 81.5 line.
Model win probability 80.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.0% model win, +30.0% no-vig edge, and +50.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -148
Projection5.3
Model win79.2%
No-vig edge+23.1%
Model-implied EV+32.6%
No-vig market56.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 5.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.3 is 1.2 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 79.2% vs 56.1% no-vig market probability creates a +23.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.2% model win, +23.1% no-vig edge, and +32.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 78.5
UNDER 78.5 -114
Projection70.7
Model win73.9%
No-vig edge+23.9%
Model-implied EV+38.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
7.8 below line
Market 78.5
PDR 70.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 70.7 is 7.8 below the 78.5 line.
Model win probability 73.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.9% model win, +23.9% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +124
Projection4.7
Model win76.5%
No-vig edge+34.8%
Model-implied EV+71.3%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.5% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +34.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.5% model win, +34.8% no-vig edge, and +71.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 80.5
UNDER 80.5 -114
Projection66.3
Model win79.1%
No-vig edge+29.1%
Model-implied EV+48.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
14.2 below line
Market 80.5
PDR 66.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 66.3 is 14.2 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -102
Projection4.8
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+26.8%
Model-implied EV+46.6%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.8 is 0.7 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +26.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +26.8% no-vig edge, and +46.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 76.5
UNDER 76.5 -114
Projection73.8
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+19.5%
Model-implied EV+30.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.7 below line
Market 76.5
PDR 73.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 73.8 is 2.7 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +30.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -104
Projection5.5
Model win77.9%
No-vig edge+30.3%
Model-implied EV+52.8%
No-vig market47.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.0 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 5.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.5 is 1.0 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 77.9% vs 47.6% no-vig market probability creates a +30.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.9% model win, +30.3% no-vig edge, and +52.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 82.5
UNDER 82.5 -114
Projection78.1
Model win70.7%
No-vig edge+20.7%
Model-implied EV+32.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.4 below line
Market 82.5
PDR 78.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 78.1 is 4.4 below the 82.5 line.
Model win probability 70.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.7% model win, +20.7% no-vig edge, and +32.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +104
Projection5.2
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+41.7%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.2 is 0.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +41.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 75.5
UNDER 75.5 -114
Projection68.9
Model win73.0%
No-vig edge+23.0%
Model-implied EV+37.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.6 below line
Market 75.5
PDR 68.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 68.9 is 6.6 below the 75.5 line.
Model win probability 73.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.0% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +37.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 78.5% | +26.6% | +41.3% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | UNDER 80.5 | 82.7% | +32.7% | +55.9% | WIN · 58 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receptions | UNDER 7.5 | 92.9% | +36.5% | +53.9% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Receiving yards | UNDER 81.5 | 80.0% | +30.0% | +50.2% | WIN · 74 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 79.2% | +23.1% | +32.6% | LOSS · 9 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | UNDER 78.5 | 73.9% | +23.9% | +38.7% | WIN · 70 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 76.5% | +34.8% | +71.3% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | UNDER 80.5 | 79.1% | +29.1% | +48.5% | WIN · 9 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 74.0% | +26.8% | +46.6% | LOSS · 17 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Receiving yards | UNDER 76.5 | 69.5% | +19.5% | +30.5% | LOSS · 189 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 77.9% | +30.3% | +52.8% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | UNDER 82.5 | 70.7% | +20.7% | +32.7% | LOSS · 112 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 69.5% | +23.6% | +41.7% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | UNDER 75.5 | 73.0% | +23.0% | +37.0% | LOSS · 153 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 82.2% | +25.5% | +35.6% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Receiving yards | UNDER 76.5 | 76.1% | +26.1% | +42.9% | WIN · 44 receiving yards | Game |