WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
6 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-1-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 33.5
FanDuel
Projection
65.1
Proj. gap
+31.6
Model win
77.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+27.6%
Model-implied EV
+45.7%
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 23 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 58.5
FanDuel
Projection
45.3
Proj. gap
-13.2
Model win
75.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.6%
Model-implied EV
+42.0%
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 33 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
FanDuel
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
68.9%
No-vig market
58.3%
No-vig edge
+10.6%
Model-implied EV
+10.4%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection
2.1
Proj. gap
+0.6
Model win
66.1%
No-vig market
48.1%
No-vig edge
+18.0%
Model-implied EV
+28.4%
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
FanDuel
Projection
3.1
Proj. gap
+1.6
Model win
64.3%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+11.5%
Model-implied EV
+13.8%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
OVER 51.5
FanDuel
Projection
70.5
Proj. gap
+19.0
Model win
61.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+11.5%
Model-implied EV
+15.5%
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 83 receiving yards