Published Record
7-8-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Ashton Jeanty NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Ashton Jeanty. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
46.7%
Published Plays
15
Modeled Lines Stored
21
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 49.5
Projection 73.6Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 3.5
Projection 2.8Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 27.5
Projection 24.4Cleared line 13%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
Like one of these props? Turn the take into a challenge with friends on Buffet Bets.
Challenge a friend →
Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
OVER 49.5 -113
Projection73.6
Model win68.5%
No-vig edge+18.5%
Model-implied EV+29.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.1 above line
Market 49.5
PDR 73.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 73.6 is 24.1 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +29.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -106
Projection2.8
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+25.9%
Model-implied EV+43.8%
No-vig market48.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.8 is 0.7 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 48.1% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +43.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 27.5
UNDER 27.5 -113
Projection24.4
Model win69.8%
No-vig edge+19.8%
Model-implied EV+31.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.1 below line
Market 27.5
PDR 24.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 24.4 is 3.1 below the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +19.8% no-vig edge, and +31.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 49.5
OVER 49.5 -114
Projection80.0
Model win76.3%
No-vig edge+26.3%
Model-implied EV+43.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.5 above line
Market 49.5
PDR 80.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 80.0 is 30.5 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 76.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.3% model win, +26.3% no-vig edge, and +43.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 +112
Projection3.1
Model win71.0%
No-vig edge+26.8%
Model-implied EV+50.5%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.1 is 0.4 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.0% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +26.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.0% model win, +26.8% no-vig edge, and +50.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 25.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection27.9
Model win36.4%
No-vig edge-13.6%
Model-implied EV-31.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 54.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection63.4
Model win47.1%
No-vig edge-2.9%
Model-implied EV-11.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -122
Projection2.6
Model win76.8%
No-vig edge+25.4%
Model-implied EV+39.8%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.6 is 0.9 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 76.8% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +25.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.8% model win, +25.4% no-vig edge, and +39.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
UNDER 24.5 -114
Projection19.8
Model win70.9%
No-vig edge+20.9%
Model-implied EV+33.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.7 below line
Market 24.5
PDR 19.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 19.8 is 4.7 below the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 70.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.9% model win, +20.9% no-vig edge, and +33.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 59.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection73.9
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -122
Projection2.4
Model win78.4%
No-vig edge+26.9%
Model-implied EV+42.6%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.4 is 1.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 78.4% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.4% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +42.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
UNDER 24.5 -114
Projection18.6
Model win72.2%
No-vig edge+22.2%
Model-implied EV+35.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.9 below line
Market 24.5
PDR 18.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 18.6 is 5.9 below the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +35.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 56.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection70.8
Model win54.6%
No-vig edge+4.6%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -154
Projection3.2
Model win69.5%
No-vig edge+12.7%
Model-implied EV+14.6%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +12.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +12.7% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection24.4
Model win39.8%
No-vig edge-10.2%
Model-implied EV-25.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 68.5
UNDER 68.5 -114
Projection65.1
Model win66.2%
No-vig edge+16.2%
Model-implied EV+24.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.4 below line
Market 68.5
PDR 65.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 65.1 is 3.4 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 66.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.2% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +24.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 +108
Projection2.7
Model win75.5%
No-vig edge+30.6%
Model-implied EV+57.0%
No-vig market44.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 2.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.7 is 0.8 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 44.9% no-vig market probability creates a +30.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +30.6% no-vig edge, and +57.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 21.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection22.0
Model win33.9%
No-vig edge-16.1%
Model-implied EV-36.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 65.5
UNDER 65.5 -114
Projection61.6
Model win66.8%
No-vig edge+16.8%
Model-implied EV+25.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.9 below line
Market 65.5
PDR 61.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 61.6 is 3.9 below the 65.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +25.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -148
Projection2.3
Model win89.1%
No-vig edge+33.3%
Model-implied EV+49.4%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 2.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.3 is 2.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 89.1% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +33.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 89.1% model win, +33.3% no-vig edge, and +49.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 28.5
UNDER 28.5 -114
Projection19.6
Model win74.7%
No-vig edge+24.7%
Model-implied EV+40.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
8.9 below line
Market 28.5
PDR 19.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 19.6 is 8.9 below the 28.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +24.7% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Rushing yards | OVER 49.5 | 68.5% | +18.5% | +29.1% | LOSS · 9 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 74.0% | +25.9% | +43.8% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | UNDER 27.5 | 69.8% | +19.8% | +31.5% | LOSS · 64 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing yards | OVER 49.5 | 76.3% | +26.3% | +43.1% | LOSS · 15 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 71.0% | +26.8% | +50.5% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 76.8% | +25.4% | +39.8% | LOSS · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving yards | UNDER 24.5 | 70.9% | +20.9% | +33.2% | LOSS · 36 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 78.4% | +26.9% | +42.6% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Receiving yards | UNDER 24.5 | 72.2% | +22.2% | +35.6% | LOSS · 50 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.5% | +12.7% | +14.6% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | Rushing yards | UNDER 68.5 | 66.2% | +16.2% | +24.3% | WIN · 56 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 75.5% | +30.6% | +57.0% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing yards | UNDER 65.5 | 66.8% | +16.8% | +25.5% | WIN · 48 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 89.1% | +33.3% | +49.4% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving yards | UNDER 28.5 | 74.7% | +24.7% | +40.1% | WIN · 15 receiving yards | Game |