Published Record
3-5-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jordan Love NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jordan Love. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
37.5%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 1.5Cleared line 88%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 260.5
Projection 190.8Cleared line 25%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -160
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge-7.3%
Model-implied EV-18.4%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 260.5
UNDER 260.5 -114
Projection190.8
Model win81.8%
No-vig edge+31.8%
Model-implied EV+53.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
69.7 below line
Market 260.5
PDR 190.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 190.8 is 69.7 below the 260.5 line.
Model win probability 81.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 81.8% model win, +31.8% no-vig edge, and +53.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -178
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge-9.6%
Model-implied EV-21.6%
No-vig market59.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 277.5
UNDER 277.5 -114
Projection194.4
Model win86.8%
No-vig edge+36.8%
Model-implied EV+63.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
83.1 below line
Market 277.5
PDR 194.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 194.4 is 83.1 below the 277.5 line.
Model win probability 86.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 86.8% model win, +36.8% no-vig edge, and +63.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -174
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge-9.2%
Model-implied EV-21.0%
No-vig market59.4%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 264.5
UNDER 264.5 -114
Projection214.2
Model win75.2%
No-vig edge+25.2%
Model-implied EV+41.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
50.3 below line
Market 264.5
PDR 214.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 214.2 is 50.3 below the 264.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +124
Projection1.5
Model win50.8%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+13.7%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 233.5
UNDER 233.5 -114
Projection220.0
Model win58.3%
No-vig edge+8.3%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.5 below line
Market 233.5
PDR 220.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 220.0 is 13.5 below the 233.5 line.
Model win probability 58.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.3% model win, +8.3% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +114
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+7.4%
No-vig market43.7%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 246.5
UNDER 246.5 -114
Projection203.9
Model win72.9%
No-vig edge+22.9%
Model-implied EV+36.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
42.6 below line
Market 246.5
PDR 203.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 203.9 is 42.6 below the 246.5 line.
Model win probability 72.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.9% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +36.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -118
Projection1.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
No-vig market50.6%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 226.5
UNDER 226.5 -114
Projection210.8
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
15.7 below line
Market 226.5
PDR 210.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 210.8 is 15.7 below the 226.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge-2.6%
Model-implied EV-11.2%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 257.5
UNDER 257.5 -114
Projection221.4
Model win68.6%
No-vig edge+18.6%
Model-implied EV+28.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
36.1 below line
Market 257.5
PDR 221.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 221.4 is 36.1 below the 257.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +28.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Passing yards | UNDER 260.5 | 81.8% | +31.8% | +53.5% | LOSS · 288 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Passing yards | UNDER 277.5 | 86.8% | +36.8% | +63.0% | WIN · 274 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Passing yards | UNDER 264.5 | 75.2% | +25.2% | +41.2% | LOSS · 276 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | Passing yards | UNDER 233.5 | 58.3% | +8.3% | +9.5% | LOSS · 367 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing yards | UNDER 246.5 | 72.9% | +22.9% | +36.8% | WIN · 197 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Passing yards | UNDER 226.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | LOSS · 312 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 257.5 | 68.6% | +18.6% | +28.8% | WIN · 145 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Passing yards | UNDER 238.5 | 81.2% | +31.2% | +52.4% | LOSS · 387 passing yards | Game |