Published Record
5-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jalen Hurts NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jalen Hurts. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
83.3%
Published Plays
6
Modeled Lines Stored
12
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -220
Projection1.7
Model win81.2%
No-vig edge+16.9%
Model-implied EV+18.1%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.7 is 1.2 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 81.2% vs 64.3% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 81.2% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 193.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection190.5
Model win51.9%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 26.5
UNDER 26.5 -114
Projection25.0
Model win64.6%
No-vig edge+14.6%
Model-implied EV+21.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.5 below line
Market 26.5
PDR 25.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 25.0 is 1.5 below the 26.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +21.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +182
Projection1.7
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+20.7%
Model-implied EV+51.9%
No-vig market33.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 204.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection194.5
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+6.2%
Model-implied EV+5.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 24.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection25.3
Model win37.7%
No-vig edge-12.3%
Model-implied EV-29.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +130
Projection1.6
Model win52.7%
No-vig edge+11.9%
Model-implied EV+21.2%
No-vig market40.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 218.5
UNDER 218.5 -113
Projection202.4
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.1 below line
Market 218.5
PDR 202.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 202.4 is 16.1 below the 218.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 24.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection26.1
Model win39.3%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-25.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +140
Projection1.6
Model win51.9%
No-vig edge+13.0%
Model-implied EV+24.7%
No-vig market39.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 206.5
UNDER 206.5 -114
Projection193.9
Model win57.6%
No-vig edge+7.6%
Model-implied EV+8.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
12.6 below line
Market 206.5
PDR 193.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 193.9 is 12.6 below the 206.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +7.6% no-vig edge, and +8.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 29.5
UNDER 29.5 -114
Projection26.4
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+16.1%
Model-implied EV+24.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.1 below line
Market 29.5
PDR 26.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 26.4 is 3.1 below the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 81.2% | +16.9% | +18.1% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 5 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing yards | UNDER 26.5 | 64.6% | +14.6% | +21.2% | WIN · 2 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears | Passing yards | UNDER 218.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.4% | WIN · 153 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Passing yards | UNDER 206.5 | 57.6% | +7.6% | +8.0% | LOSS · 264 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Rushing yards | UNDER 29.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.0% | WIN · 16 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Passing yards | UNDER 214.5 | 57.9% | +7.9% | +8.8% | WIN · 203 passing yards | Game |