Published Record
2-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Geno Smith NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Geno Smith. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
25.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.3Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 225.5
Projection 179.7Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -144
Projection1.3
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge+2.0%
Model-implied EV-2.8%
No-vig market55.3%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 225.5
UNDER 225.5 -113
Projection179.7
Model win73.6%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+38.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
45.8 below line
Market 225.5
PDR 179.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 179.7 is 45.8 below the 225.5 line.
Model win probability 73.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 73.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +38.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -136
Projection1.3
Model win58.1%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+0.9%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 223.5
UNDER 223.5 -114
Projection204.2
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.3 below line
Market 223.5
PDR 204.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 204.2 is 19.3 below the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -250
Projection1.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge-10.0%
Model-implied EV-20.5%
No-vig market66.8%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 221.5
UNDER 221.5 -114
Projection174.0
Model win74.2%
No-vig edge+24.2%
Model-implied EV+39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
47.5 below line
Market 221.5
PDR 174.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 174.0 is 47.5 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +39.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -200
Projection1.3
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge-4.6%
Model-implied EV-13.4%
No-vig market62.3%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 206.5
UNDER 206.5 -114
Projection178.9
Model win63.4%
No-vig edge+13.4%
Model-implied EV+19.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
27.6 below line
Market 206.5
PDR 178.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 178.9 is 27.6 below the 206.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -220
Projection1.4
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge-7.3%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 227.5
UNDER 227.5 -114
Projection209.5
Model win59.9%
No-vig edge+9.9%
Model-implied EV+12.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.0 below line
Market 227.5
PDR 209.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 209.5 is 18.0 below the 227.5 line.
Model win probability 59.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.9% model win, +9.9% no-vig edge, and +12.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -220
Projection1.4
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge-7.3%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
No-vig market64.3%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 221.5
UNDER 221.5 -114
Projection186.4
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+17.8%
Model-implied EV+27.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
35.1 below line
Market 221.5
PDR 186.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 186.4 is 35.1 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -235
Projection1.4
Model win57.0%
No-vig edge-8.6%
Model-implied EV-18.8%
No-vig market65.6%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 207.5
UNDER 207.5 -114
Projection188.0
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.5 below line
Market 207.5
PDR 188.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 188.0 is 19.5 below the 207.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 225.5 | 73.6% | +23.6% | +38.8% | LOSS · 290 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 223.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.5% | LOSS · 287 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Passing yards | UNDER 221.5 | 74.2% | +24.2% | +39.3% | LOSS · 252 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 206.5 | 63.4% | +13.4% | +19.0% | WIN · 182 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Passing yards | UNDER 227.5 | 59.9% | +9.9% | +12.4% | WIN · 119 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Passing yards | UNDER 221.5 | 67.8% | +17.8% | +27.3% | LOSS · 321 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 207.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.5% | LOSS · 247 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Passing yards | UNDER 212.5 | 57.6% | +7.6% | +8.0% | LOSS · 215 passing yards | Game |