Published Record
6-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Trevor Lawrence NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Trevor Lawrence. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
16
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 2.2Cleared line 71%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 237.5
Projection 256.6Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 11.5
Projection 24.2Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER -220
Projection2.2
Model win67.2%
No-vig edge+2.7%
Model-implied EV-2.2%
No-vig market64.6%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 237.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection256.6
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+7.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 11.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection24.2
Model win52.5%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +136
Projection2.2
Model win66.9%
No-vig edge+27.2%
Model-implied EV+57.8%
No-vig market39.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 39.6% no-vig market probability creates a +27.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +27.2% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 223.5
OVER 223.5 -114
Projection250.3
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.8 above line
Market 223.5
PDR 250.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 250.3 is 26.8 above the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 12.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection22.8
Model win48.7%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -102
Projection2.2
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+18.9%
Model-implied EV+30.9%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +18.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +18.9% no-vig edge, and +30.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 229.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection225.9
Model win52.1%
No-vig edge+2.1%
Model-implied EV-2.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 13.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection23.1
Model win47.9%
No-vig edge-2.1%
Model-implied EV-10.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -136
Projection2.3
Model win68.0%
No-vig edge+14.2%
Model-implied EV+18.0%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.3 is 0.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +14.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +14.2% no-vig edge, and +18.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 265.5
UNDER 265.5 -114
Projection246.4
Model win60.5%
No-vig edge+10.5%
Model-implied EV+13.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.1 below line
Market 265.5
PDR 246.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 246.4 is 19.1 below the 265.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 -104
Projection2.2
Model win67.1%
No-vig edge+19.5%
Model-implied EV+31.5%
No-vig market47.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 47.6% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +31.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 223.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection220.3
Model win51.9%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 16.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection22.8
Model win44.2%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-17.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
OVER 1.5 +116
Projection2.2
Model win67.8%
No-vig edge+24.5%
Model-implied EV+46.5%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.7 above line
Market 1.5
PDR 2.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +24.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +24.5% no-vig edge, and +46.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 220.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection233.9
Model win54.3%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 66.9% | +27.2% | +57.8% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 6 | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing yards | OVER 223.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | WIN · 306 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 66.1% | +18.9% | +30.9% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 68.0% | +14.2% | +18.0% | LOSS · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing yards | UNDER 265.5 | 60.5% | +10.5% | +13.5% | WIN · 227 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 67.1% | +19.5% | +31.5% | WIN · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 67.8% | +24.5% | +46.5% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | OVER 1.5 | 66.1% | +18.0% | +28.4% | WIN · 4 passing TDs | Game |