Published Record
9-1-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Bijan Robinson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Bijan Robinson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
90.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
21
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · UNDER 80.5
Projection 77.6Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 3.5
Projection 4.4Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 31.5
Projection 38.8Cleared line 38%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 80.5
UNDER 80.5 -113
Projection77.6
Model win66.0%
No-vig edge+16.0%
Model-implied EV+24.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.9 below line
Market 80.5
PDR 77.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 77.6 is 2.9 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 66.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.0% model win, +16.0% no-vig edge, and +24.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection4.4
Model win50.9%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-14.7%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 31.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection38.8
Model win43.3%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 83.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection85.9
Model win40.5%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection4.5
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge-5.2%
Model-implied EV-14.8%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 24.5
OVER 24.5 -114
Projection42.8
Model win60.4%
No-vig edge+10.4%
Model-implied EV+13.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
18.3 above line
Market 24.5
PDR 42.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 42.8 is 18.3 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 60.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.4% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +13.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 91.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection95.8
Model win42.2%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER +102
Projection4.4
Model win51.6%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.3%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 26.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection41.7
Model win55.8%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+4.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 88.5
UNDER 88.5 -114
Projection78.5
Model win73.6%
No-vig edge+23.6%
Model-implied EV+38.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
10.0 below line
Market 88.5
PDR 78.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 78.5 is 10.0 below the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 73.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 73.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +38.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 3.5
Model side: OVER -136
Projection4.6
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+0.1%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 26.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection42.7
Model win57.3%
No-vig edge+7.3%
Model-implied EV+7.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Mon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 87.5
UNDER 87.5 -114
Projection84.1
Model win66.2%
No-vig edge+16.2%
Model-implied EV+24.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.4 below line
Market 87.5
PDR 84.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 84.1 is 3.4 below the 87.5 line.
Model win probability 66.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.2% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +24.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -114
Projection4.5
Model win64.2%
No-vig edge+14.2%
Model-implied EV+20.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.2% model win, +14.2% no-vig edge, and +20.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 39.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection40.8
Model win35.0%
No-vig edge-15.0%
Model-implied EV-34.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 77.5
OVER 77.5 -114
Projection100.6
Model win67.6%
No-vig edge+17.6%
Model-implied EV+26.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.1 above line
Market 77.5
PDR 100.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 100.6 is 23.1 above the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 67.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.6% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +26.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -102
Projection4.3
Model win67.5%
No-vig edge+20.3%
Model-implied EV+33.7%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.5% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.5% model win, +20.3% no-vig edge, and +33.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 40.5
UNDER 40.5 -114
Projection39.0
Model win68.2%
No-vig edge+18.2%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.5 below line
Market 40.5
PDR 39.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 39.0 is 1.5 below the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 84.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection91.9
Model win45.2%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 +116
Projection4.1
Model win71.2%
No-vig edge+27.9%
Model-implied EV+53.7%
No-vig market43.3%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 4.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +27.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +27.9% no-vig edge, and +53.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
UNDER 42.5 -114
Projection37.0
Model win71.7%
No-vig edge+21.7%
Model-implied EV+34.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.5 below line
Market 42.5
PDR 37.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 37.0 is 5.5 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 71.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.7% model win, +21.7% no-vig edge, and +34.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing yards | UNDER 80.5 | 66.0% | +16.0% | +24.3% | WIN · 76 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | OVER 24.5 | 60.4% | +10.4% | +13.4% | WIN · 59 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | Rushing yards | UNDER 88.5 | 73.6% | +23.6% | +38.2% | WIN · 86 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Rushing yards | UNDER 87.5 | 66.2% | +16.2% | +24.3% | LOSS · 145 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 64.2% | +14.2% | +20.5% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Rushing yards | OVER 77.5 | 67.6% | +17.6% | +26.9% | WIN · 194 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 67.5% | +20.3% | +33.7% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Receiving yards | UNDER 40.5 | 68.2% | +18.2% | +28.1% | WIN · 19 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 71.2% | +27.9% | +53.7% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | Receiving yards | UNDER 42.5 | 71.7% | +21.7% | +34.6% | WIN · 9 receiving yards | Game |