Published Record
4-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Emeka Egbuka NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Emeka Egbuka. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -172
Projection3.7
Model win56.4%
No-vig edge-2.6%
Model-implied EV-10.8%
No-vig market59.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 31.5
OVER 31.5 -114
Projection54.2
Model win66.9%
No-vig edge+16.9%
Model-implied EV+25.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
22.7 above line
Market 31.5
PDR 54.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 54.2 is 22.7 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 -138
Projection3.4
Model win64.6%
No-vig edge+10.4%
Model-implied EV+11.4%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.4 is 0.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +11.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 36.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection47.2
Model win48.8%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 4.5
UNDER 4.5 -158
Projection3.1
Model win82.0%
No-vig edge+24.9%
Model-implied EV+34.0%
No-vig market57.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.4 below line
Market 4.5
PDR 3.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.1 is 1.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 82.0% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +24.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.0% model win, +24.9% no-vig edge, and +34.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 48.5
UNDER 48.5 -114
Projection35.3
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+28.6%
Model-implied EV+47.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.2 below line
Market 48.5
PDR 35.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 35.3 is 13.2 below the 48.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
UNDER 3.5 +114
Projection3.2
Model win69.3%
No-vig edge+25.6%
Model-implied EV+48.2%
No-vig market43.7%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 3.5
PDR 3.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.3% vs 43.7% no-vig market probability creates a +25.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.3% model win, +25.6% no-vig edge, and +48.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 52.5
UNDER 52.5 -114
Projection39.3
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+28.6%
Model-implied EV+47.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.2 below line
Market 52.5
PDR 39.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 39.3 is 13.2 below the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Receiving yards | OVER 31.5 | 66.9% | +16.9% | +25.7% | WIN · 38 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 64.6% | +10.4% | +11.4% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 82.0% | +24.9% | +34.0% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | UNDER 48.5 | 78.6% | +28.6% | +47.5% | LOSS · 62 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | UNDER 3.5 | 69.3% | +25.6% | +48.2% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving yards | UNDER 52.5 | 78.6% | +28.6% | +47.5% | WIN · 16 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | UNDER 4.5 | 82.2% | +23.9% | +31.7% | LOSS · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving yards | UNDER 54.5 | 75.3% | +25.3% | +41.4% | LOSS · 63 receiving yards | Game |