WEEK 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM CDT

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

3 qualified model plays · 0 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-1-0

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 3 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 64.5% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +15.1% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +22.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receiving yards

LOSS

UNDER 45.5

FanDuel

Projection 44.1

Proj. gap -1.4

Model win 68.2%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +18.2%

Model-implied EV +28.1%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 52 receiving yards

#2 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receiving yards

WIN

OVER 39.5

FanDuel

Projection 61.4

Proj. gap +21.9

Model win 66.0%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +16.0%

Model-implied EV +23.8%

Historical residual sample: 2154

Final: 138 receiving yards

#3 MODEL PLAY

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs

WIN

OVER 1.5

FanDuel

Projection 1.9

Proj. gap +0.4

Model win 59.3%

No-vig market 48.1%

No-vig edge +11.2%

Model-implied EV +15.2%

Historical residual sample: 516

Final: 2 passing TDs