Published Record
8-8-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Garrett Wilson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Garrett Wilson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
16
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 5.5
Projection 5.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 63.5
Projection 56.9Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -125
Projection5.1
Model win71.2%
No-vig edge+19.3%
Model-implied EV+28.1%
No-vig market51.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.1 is 0.4 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +19.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +19.3% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 63.5
UNDER 63.5 -113
Projection56.9
Model win73.0%
No-vig edge+23.0%
Model-implied EV+37.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.6 below line
Market 63.5
PDR 56.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 56.9 is 6.6 below the 63.5 line.
Model win probability 73.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.0% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -130
Projection4.9
Model win73.4%
No-vig edge+20.6%
Model-implied EV+29.9%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.6 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.9 is 0.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 61.5
UNDER 61.5 -114
Projection56.6
Model win71.3%
No-vig edge+21.3%
Model-implied EV+33.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.9 below line
Market 61.5
PDR 56.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 56.6 is 4.9 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +21.3% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -130
Projection4.7
Model win85.2%
No-vig edge+32.4%
Model-implied EV+50.8%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.8 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 4.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.7 is 1.8 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 85.2% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +32.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.2% model win, +32.4% no-vig edge, and +50.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 75.5
UNDER 75.5 -114
Projection51.2
Model win86.0%
No-vig edge+36.0%
Model-implied EV+61.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.3 below line
Market 75.5
PDR 51.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 51.2 is 24.3 below the 75.5 line.
Model win probability 86.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.0% model win, +36.0% no-vig edge, and +61.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -125
Projection4.6
Model win86.7%
No-vig edge+34.8%
Model-implied EV+56.1%
No-vig market51.9%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 4.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.6 is 1.9 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 86.7% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +34.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.7% model win, +34.8% no-vig edge, and +56.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 68.5
UNDER 68.5 -114
Projection47.2
Model win84.1%
No-vig edge+34.1%
Model-implied EV+57.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.3 below line
Market 68.5
PDR 47.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 47.2 is 21.3 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 84.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.1% model win, +34.1% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 -122
Projection5.4
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+27.2%
Model-implied EV+43.0%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 5.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.4 is 1.1 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +27.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +27.2% no-vig edge, and +43.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 77.5
UNDER 77.5 -114
Projection64.9
Model win77.5%
No-vig edge+27.5%
Model-implied EV+45.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
12.6 below line
Market 77.5
PDR 64.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 64.9 is 12.6 below the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +27.5% no-vig edge, and +45.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -136
Projection4.4
Model win78.7%
No-vig edge+24.9%
Model-implied EV+36.6%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.1 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 4.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 4.4 is 1.1 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 78.7% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +24.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.7% model win, +24.9% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 61.5
UNDER 61.5 -114
Projection45.3
Model win80.3%
No-vig edge+30.3%
Model-implied EV+50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.2 below line
Market 61.5
PDR 45.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 45.3 is 16.2 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 80.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.3% model win, +30.3% no-vig edge, and +50.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 +112
Projection5.0
Model win71.6%
No-vig edge+27.4%
Model-implied EV+51.8%
No-vig market44.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.0 is 0.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +27.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +27.4% no-vig edge, and +51.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 64.5
UNDER 64.5 -114
Projection56.9
Model win73.8%
No-vig edge+23.8%
Model-implied EV+38.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
7.6 below line
Market 64.5
PDR 56.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 56.9 is 7.6 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 73.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.8% model win, +23.8% no-vig edge, and +38.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 71.2% | +19.3% | +28.1% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 8 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | UNDER 63.5 | 73.0% | +23.0% | +37.6% | LOSS · 83 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 73.4% | +20.6% | +29.9% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | UNDER 61.5 | 71.3% | +21.3% | +33.9% | WIN · 26 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 85.2% | +32.4% | +50.8% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Receiving yards | UNDER 75.5 | 86.0% | +36.0% | +61.4% | WIN · 44 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 86.7% | +34.8% | +56.1% | LOSS · 7 receptions | Game |
| Week 5 | Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | UNDER 68.5 | 84.1% | +34.1% | +57.8% | LOSS · 104 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 78.6% | +27.2% | +43.0% | WIN · 3 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Receiving yards | UNDER 77.5 | 77.5% | +27.5% | +45.5% | WIN · 27 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 78.7% | +24.9% | +36.6% | LOSS · 10 receptions | Game |
| Week 3 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Receiving yards | UNDER 61.5 | 80.3% | +30.3% | +50.8% | LOSS · 107 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 71.6% | +27.4% | +51.8% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | Receiving yards | UNDER 64.5 | 73.8% | +23.8% | +38.5% | WIN · 57 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 74.1% | +24.1% | +39.1% | LOSS · 6 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Receiving yards | UNDER 61.5 | 70.5% | +20.5% | +32.3% | LOSS · 79 receiving yards | Game |