Published Record
8-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Dak Prescott NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Dak Prescott. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
57.1%
Published Plays
14
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 2.5
Projection 1.3Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 271.5
Projection 250.4Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 -148
Projection1.3
Model win82.0%
No-vig edge+25.9%
Model-implied EV+37.4%
No-vig market56.1%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 1.2 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 82.0% vs 56.1% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 82.0% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +37.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 271.5
UNDER 271.5 -113
Projection250.4
Model win61.0%
No-vig edge+11.0%
Model-implied EV+15.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.1 below line
Market 271.5
PDR 250.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 250.4 is 21.1 below the 271.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +11.0% no-vig edge, and +15.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +110
Projection1.3
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+13.4%
Model-implied EV+21.7%
No-vig market44.5%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 44.5% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +21.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 268.5
UNDER 268.5 -114
Projection221.6
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+24.0%
Model-implied EV+39.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
46.9 below line
Market 268.5
PDR 221.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 221.6 is 46.9 below the 268.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +39.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +124
Projection1.3
Model win57.4%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+28.5%
No-vig market41.7%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 277.5
UNDER 277.5 -114
Projection237.9
Model win70.5%
No-vig edge+20.5%
Model-implied EV+32.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
39.6 below line
Market 277.5
PDR 237.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 237.9 is 39.6 below the 277.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +32.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 -210
Projection1.3
Model win82.6%
No-vig edge+19.3%
Model-implied EV+21.9%
No-vig market63.2%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.2 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 1.2 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 82.6% vs 63.2% no-vig market probability creates a +19.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 82.6% model win, +19.3% no-vig edge, and +21.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 263.5
UNDER 263.5 -114
Projection234.1
Model win63.8%
No-vig edge+13.8%
Model-implied EV+19.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
29.4 below line
Market 263.5
PDR 234.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 234.1 is 29.4 below the 263.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +19.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 -112
Projection1.3
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge+8.4%
Model-implied EV+9.3%
No-vig market49.4%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +8.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +8.4% no-vig edge, and +9.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 273.5
UNDER 273.5 -114
Projection249.9
Model win62.2%
No-vig edge+12.2%
Model-implied EV+16.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.6 below line
Market 273.5
PDR 249.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 249.9 is 23.6 below the 273.5 line.
Model win probability 62.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.2% model win, +12.2% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +104
Projection1.3
Model win57.6%
No-vig edge+11.7%
Model-implied EV+17.4%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +11.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +11.7% no-vig edge, and +17.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 263.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection279.3
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 1.5
UNDER 1.5 +154
Projection1.3
Model win57.9%
No-vig edge+21.2%
Model-implied EV+47.2%
No-vig market36.8%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.2 below line
Market 1.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 36.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +47.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 262.5
UNDER 262.5 -114
Projection249.5
Model win57.8%
No-vig edge+7.8%
Model-implied EV+8.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.0 below line
Market 262.5
PDR 249.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 249.5 is 13.0 below the 262.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +8.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | UNDER 2.5 | 82.0% | +25.9% | +37.4% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing yards | UNDER 271.5 | 61.0% | +11.0% | +15.1% | WIN · 195 passing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 57.9% | +13.4% | +21.7% | LOSS · 3 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Passing yards | UNDER 268.5 | 74.0% | +24.0% | +39.0% | WIN · 212 passing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Passing yards | UNDER 277.5 | 70.5% | +20.5% | +32.4% | WIN · 258 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | UNDER 2.5 | 82.6% | +19.3% | +21.9% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing yards | UNDER 263.5 | 63.8% | +13.8% | +19.7% | LOSS · 316 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 57.8% | +8.4% | +9.3% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Passing yards | UNDER 273.5 | 62.2% | +12.2% | +16.8% | LOSS · 335 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 57.6% | +11.7% | +17.4% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 57.9% | +21.2% | +47.2% | LOSS · 4 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing yards | UNDER 262.5 | 57.8% | +7.8% | +8.4% | LOSS · 279 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Passing TDs | UNDER 1.5 | 57.9% | +15.1% | +26.3% | LOSS · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Passing yards | UNDER 260.5 | 75.0% | +25.0% | +40.8% | WIN · 175 passing yards | Game |