Published Record
6-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Cam Ward NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Cam Ward. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
75.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 0.5
Projection 1.4Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 192.5
Projection 187.1Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -210
Projection1.4
Model win71.3%
No-vig edge+7.7%
Model-implied EV+5.3%
No-vig market63.6%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.4 is 0.9 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 63.6% no-vig market probability creates a +7.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +7.7% no-vig edge, and +5.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 192.5
Model side: UNDER -113
Projection187.1
Model win53.9%
No-vig edge+3.9%
Model-implied EV+1.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -240
Projection1.3
Model win69.6%
No-vig edge+3.7%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
No-vig market65.9%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 190.5
UNDER 190.5 -114
Projection173.5
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.0 below line
Market 190.5
PDR 173.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 173.5 is 17.0 below the 190.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -250
Projection1.4
Model win70.5%
No-vig edge+3.7%
Model-implied EV-1.2%
No-vig market66.8%
Samples516
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 200.5
Model side: UNDER -114
Projection198.2
Model win51.7%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-2.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -166
Projection1.3
Model win70.2%
No-vig edge+11.9%
Model-implied EV+12.4%
No-vig market58.3%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.3 is 0.8 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +11.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +11.9% no-vig edge, and +12.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 192.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection193.7
Model win49.6%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -180
Projection1.4
Model win71.1%
No-vig edge+11.1%
Model-implied EV+10.6%
No-vig market60.1%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.9 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.4 is 0.9 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 71.1% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +11.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.1% model win, +11.1% no-vig edge, and +10.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 188.5
OVER 188.5 -114
Projection224.7
Model win64.7%
No-vig edge+14.7%
Model-implied EV+21.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
36.2 above line
Market 188.5
PDR 224.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 224.7 is 36.2 above the 188.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -215
Projection1.3
Model win70.0%
No-vig edge+6.2%
Model-implied EV+2.5%
No-vig market63.8%
Samples516
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 191.5
UNDER 191.5 -114
Projection157.4
Model win66.5%
No-vig edge+16.5%
Model-implied EV+24.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
34.1 below line
Market 191.5
PDR 157.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 157.4 is 34.1 below the 191.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +24.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Qualified
fanduel · Line 0.5
OVER 0.5 -192
Projection1.3
Model win70.2%
No-vig edge+8.9%
Model-implied EV+6.7%
No-vig market61.2%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.8 above line
Market 0.5
PDR 1.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 1.3 is 0.8 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 61.2% no-vig market probability creates a +8.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +8.9% no-vig edge, and +6.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 188.5
UNDER 188.5 -114
Projection172.0
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
16.5 below line
Market 188.5
PDR 172.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 172.0 is 16.5 below the 188.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 71.3% | +7.7% | +5.3% | WIN · 2 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 7 | Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans | Passing yards | UNDER 190.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% | WIN · 181 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 70.2% | +11.9% | +12.4% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 4 | Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 71.1% | +11.1% | +10.6% | WIN · 1 passing TD | Game |
| Week 4 | Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing yards | OVER 188.5 | 64.7% | +14.7% | +21.5% | WIN · 222 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants | Passing yards | UNDER 191.5 | 66.5% | +16.5% | +24.8% | WIN · 181 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Passing TDs | OVER 0.5 | 70.2% | +8.9% | +6.7% | LOSS · 0 passing TDs | Game |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Passing yards | UNDER 188.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | WIN · 183 passing yards | Game |