Published Record
2-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jaxon Smith-Njigba NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
25.0%
Published Plays
10
Modeled Lines Stored
14
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · UNDER 7.5
Projection 7.1Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · UNDER 99.5
Projection 94.9Cleared line 14%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 7.5
UNDER 7.5 -140
Projection7.1
Model win70.3%
No-vig edge+15.8%
Model-implied EV+20.6%
No-vig market54.6%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 7.5
PDR 7.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 7.1 is 0.4 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 70.3% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +15.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.3% model win, +15.8% no-vig edge, and +20.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 99.5
UNDER 99.5 -114
Projection94.9
Model win70.8%
No-vig edge+20.8%
Model-implied EV+33.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
4.6 below line
Market 99.5
PDR 94.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 94.9 is 4.6 below the 99.5 line.
Model win probability 70.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.8% model win, +20.8% no-vig edge, and +33.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 +104
Projection6.1
Model win71.2%
No-vig edge+25.4%
Model-implied EV+45.2%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 6.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 6.1 is 0.4 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +25.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +25.4% no-vig edge, and +45.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 92.5
UNDER 92.5 -114
Projection79.1
Model win78.6%
No-vig edge+28.6%
Model-implied EV+47.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
13.4 below line
Market 92.5
PDR 79.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 79.1 is 13.4 below the 92.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -122
Projection6.6
Model win38.2%
No-vig edge-13.5%
Model-implied EV-30.6%
No-vig market51.6%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 91.5
UNDER 91.5 -114
Projection84.4
Model win73.3%
No-vig edge+23.3%
Model-implied EV+37.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
7.1 below line
Market 91.5
PDR 84.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 84.4 is 7.1 below the 91.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -130
Projection7.0
Model win45.2%
No-vig edge-7.6%
Model-implied EV-20.0%
No-vig market52.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 93.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection96.5
Model win37.3%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 6.5
UNDER 6.5 +104
Projection6.4
Model win65.6%
No-vig edge+19.8%
Model-implied EV+33.9%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 6.5
PDR 6.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 6.4 is 0.1 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 65.6% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +19.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.6% model win, +19.8% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 90.5
UNDER 90.5 -114
Projection88.6
Model win68.7%
No-vig edge+18.7%
Model-implied EV+28.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.9 below line
Market 90.5
PDR 88.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 88.6 is 1.9 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 68.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.7% model win, +18.7% no-vig edge, and +28.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -112
Projection6.6
Model win38.2%
No-vig edge-11.2%
Model-implied EV-27.7%
No-vig market49.4%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 90.5
UNDER 90.5 -114
Projection86.7
Model win70.2%
No-vig edge+20.2%
Model-implied EV+31.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.8 below line
Market 90.5
PDR 86.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 86.7 is 3.8 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +20.2% no-vig edge, and +31.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 6.5
Model side: OVER -106
Projection7.2
Model win47.9%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
No-vig market48.1%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 81.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection82.4
Model win34.5%
No-vig edge-15.5%
Model-implied EV-35.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 7.5 | 70.3% | +15.8% | +20.6% | Pending | Game |
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 99.5 | 70.8% | +20.8% | +33.0% | Pending | Game |
| Week 7 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 71.2% | +25.4% | +45.2% | LOSS · 9 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 92.5 | 78.6% | +28.6% | +47.6% | LOSS · 150 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos | Receiving yards | UNDER 91.5 | 73.3% | +23.3% | +37.6% | LOSS · 134 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 65.6% | +19.8% | +33.9% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 90.5 | 68.7% | +18.7% | +28.9% | WIN · 76 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | UNDER 90.5 | 70.2% | +20.2% | +31.9% | LOSS · 128 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Receptions | UNDER 6.5 | 64.2% | +11.3% | +13.5% | LOSS · 8 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 82.5 | 67.1% | +17.1% | +26.0% | LOSS · 122 receiving yards | Game |