Published Record
3-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Lamar Jackson NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Lamar Jackson. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
60.0%
Published Plays
5
Modeled Lines Stored
8
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · UNDER 1.5
Projection 1.4Cleared line 60%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 237.5
Projection 163.5Cleared line 80%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -110
Projection1.4
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.3%
No-vig market49.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 237.5
UNDER 237.5 -113
Projection163.5
Model win83.7%
No-vig edge+33.7%
Model-implied EV+57.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
74.0 below line
Market 237.5
PDR 163.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 163.5 is 74.0 below the 237.5 line.
Model win probability 83.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 83.7% model win, +33.7% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +102
Projection1.4
Model win56.8%
No-vig edge+10.6%
Model-implied EV+14.7%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 225.5
UNDER 225.5 -114
Projection193.6
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
31.9 below line
Market 225.5
PDR 193.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 193.6 is 31.9 below the 225.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER +110
Projection1.4
Model win56.0%
No-vig edge+11.5%
Model-implied EV+17.6%
No-vig market44.5%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 236.5
UNDER 236.5 -114
Projection204.9
Model win65.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+23.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
31.6 below line
Market 236.5
PDR 204.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 204.9 is 31.6 below the 236.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -122
Projection1.4
Model win56.6%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.0%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 228.5
UNDER 228.5 -114
Projection189.7
Model win70.0%
No-vig edge+20.0%
Model-implied EV+31.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
38.8 below line
Market 228.5
PDR 189.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 189.7 is 38.8 below the 228.5 line.
Model win probability 70.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.0% model win, +20.0% no-vig edge, and +31.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 237.5 | 83.7% | +33.7% | +57.8% | WIN · 0 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing yards | UNDER 225.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 222 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Passing yards | UNDER 236.5 | 65.7% | +15.7% | +23.3% | WIN · 186 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens | Passing yards | UNDER 228.5 | 70.0% | +20.0% | +31.3% | LOSS · 235 passing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Passing yards | UNDER 220.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% | LOSS · 324 passing yards | Game |