Published Record
4-4-0
PLAYER PROFILE
George Kittle NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for George Kittle. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
8
Modeled Lines Stored
10
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
No current-week research chart is available for this player yet.
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 7
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 5.5
Model side: OVER -102
Projection5.7
Model win39.5%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-21.8%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 66.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection69.7
Model win37.5%
No-vig edge-12.5%
Model-implied EV-29.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 6
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 5.5
UNDER 5.5 -136
Projection5.0
Model win72.2%
No-vig edge+18.4%
Model-implied EV+25.3%
No-vig market53.8%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 5.5
PDR 5.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 5.0 is 0.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +18.4% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 63.5
UNDER 63.5 -114
Projection57.9
Model win71.8%
No-vig edge+21.8%
Model-implied EV+34.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.6 below line
Market 63.5
PDR 57.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 57.9 is 5.6 below the 63.5 line.
Model win probability 71.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.8% model win, +21.8% no-vig edge, and +34.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -138
Projection5.1
Model win47.1%
No-vig edge-7.1%
Model-implied EV-18.7%
No-vig market54.2%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 57.5
UNDER 57.5 -114
Projection57.0
Model win67.1%
No-vig edge+17.1%
Model-implied EV+26.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.5 below line
Market 57.5
PDR 57.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 57.0 is 0.5 below the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +26.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 4.5
Model side: OVER -148
Projection5.3
Model win50.0%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-16.2%
No-vig market55.9%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 64.5
UNDER 64.5 -114
Projection58.8
Model win72.1%
No-vig edge+22.1%
Model-implied EV+35.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
5.7 below line
Market 64.5
PDR 58.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 58.8 is 5.7 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 3.5
OVER 3.5 -154
Projection5.2
Model win66.9%
No-vig edge+10.1%
Model-implied EV+10.3%
No-vig market56.7%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 above line
Market 3.5
PDR 5.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 5.2 is 1.7 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +10.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +10.1% no-vig edge, and +10.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 42.5
OVER 42.5 -114
Projection60.3
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.8 above line
Market 42.5
PDR 60.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 60.3 is 17.8 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | UNDER 5.5 | 72.2% | +18.4% | +25.3% | WIN · 5 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | UNDER 63.5 | 71.8% | +21.8% | +34.8% | LOSS · 69 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | Receiving yards | UNDER 57.5 | 67.1% | +17.1% | +26.0% | WIN · 24 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | UNDER 64.5 | 72.1% | +22.1% | +35.3% | LOSS · 70 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 66.9% | +10.1% | +10.3% | WIN · 4 receptions | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Receiving yards | OVER 42.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% | WIN · 80 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Receptions | OVER 3.5 | 73.4% | +17.6% | +23.1% | LOSS · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 1 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | Receiving yards | OVER 39.5 | 69.2% | +19.2% | +29.9% | LOSS · 12 receiving yards | Game |