Published Record
5-7-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Malik Willis NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Malik Willis. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
41.7%
Published Plays
12
Modeled Lines Stored
18
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 0.5
Projection 0.7Cleared line 57%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · UNDER 178.5
Projection 117.6Cleared line 29%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · UNDER 33.5
Projection 30.3Cleared line 43%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Nov 1, 2:25 PM CST
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -165
Projection0.7
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-3.2%
Model-implied EV-11.3%
No-vig market58.5%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 178.5
UNDER 178.5 -113
Projection117.6
Model win78.7%
No-vig edge+28.7%
Model-implied EV+48.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
60.9 below line
Market 178.5
PDR 117.6
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 117.6 is 60.9 below the 178.5 line.
Model win probability 78.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 78.7% model win, +28.7% no-vig edge, and +48.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 33.5
UNDER 33.5 -113
Projection30.3
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+16.1%
Model-implied EV+24.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.2 below line
Market 33.5
PDR 30.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.3 is 3.2 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 7
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -198
Projection0.8
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-6.8%
Model-implied EV-16.9%
No-vig market62.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 183.5
UNDER 183.5 -114
Projection166.0
Model win59.7%
No-vig edge+9.7%
Model-implied EV+12.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
17.5 below line
Market 183.5
PDR 166.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 166.0 is 17.5 below the 183.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 30.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection31.9
Model win39.3%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -180
Projection0.7
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
No-vig market60.1%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 192.5
UNDER 192.5 -114
Projection139.1
Model win76.4%
No-vig edge+26.4%
Model-implied EV+43.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
53.4 below line
Market 192.5
PDR 139.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 139.1 is 53.4 below the 192.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 32.5
UNDER 32.5 -114
Projection30.9
Model win64.7%
No-vig edge+14.7%
Model-implied EV+21.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.6 below line
Market 32.5
PDR 30.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.9 is 1.6 below the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 4
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER +102
Projection0.7
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge+9.0%
Model-implied EV+11.6%
No-vig market46.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 169.5
UNDER 169.5 -114
Projection107.0
Model win79.1%
No-vig edge+29.1%
Model-implied EV+48.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
62.5 below line
Market 169.5
PDR 107.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 107.0 is 62.5 below the 169.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 30.5
UNDER 30.5 -114
Projection30.2
Model win63.1%
No-vig edge+13.1%
Model-implied EV+18.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 30.5
PDR 30.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.2 is 0.3 below the 30.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -210
Projection0.8
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-18.5%
No-vig market63.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 177.5
UNDER 177.5 -114
Projection134.8
Model win72.9%
No-vig edge+22.9%
Model-implied EV+36.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
42.7 below line
Market 177.5
PDR 134.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 134.8 is 42.7 below the 177.5 line.
Model win probability 72.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.9% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +36.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 33.5
UNDER 33.5 -114
Projection30.4
Model win66.1%
No-vig edge+16.1%
Model-implied EV+24.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
3.1 below line
Market 33.5
PDR 30.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 30.4 is 3.1 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 2
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
2 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -162
Projection0.8
Model win55.2%
No-vig edge-2.6%
Model-implied EV-10.7%
No-vig market57.9%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 184.5
UNDER 184.5 -114
Projection163.4
Model win61.0%
No-vig edge+11.0%
Model-implied EV+14.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
21.1 below line
Market 184.5
PDR 163.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 163.4 is 21.1 below the 184.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +11.0% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 36.5
UNDER 36.5 -114
Projection29.7
Model win70.5%
No-vig edge+20.5%
Model-implied EV+32.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
6.8 below line
Market 36.5
PDR 29.7
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 29.7 is 6.8 below the 36.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +32.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Passing yards | UNDER 178.5 | 78.7% | +28.7% | +48.3% | LOSS · 211 passing yards | Game |
| Week 8 | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Rushing yards | UNDER 33.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.6% | WIN · 2 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Passing yards | UNDER 183.5 | 59.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% | LOSS · 208 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Passing yards | UNDER 192.5 | 76.4% | +26.4% | +43.3% | WIN · 137 passing yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Rushing yards | UNDER 32.5 | 64.7% | +14.7% | +21.5% | LOSS · 74 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | Passing yards | UNDER 169.5 | 79.1% | +29.1% | +48.4% | WIN · 85 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | Rushing yards | UNDER 30.5 | 63.1% | +13.1% | +18.4% | WIN · 11 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Passing yards | UNDER 177.5 | 72.9% | +22.9% | +36.8% | LOSS · 210 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | Rushing yards | UNDER 33.5 | 66.1% | +16.1% | +24.0% | LOSS · 56 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Passing yards | UNDER 184.5 | 61.0% | +11.0% | +14.6% | LOSS · 197 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | Rushing yards | UNDER 36.5 | 70.5% | +20.5% | +32.3% | WIN · 6 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Passing yards | UNDER 184.5 | 77.3% | +27.3% | +45.2% | LOSS · 220 passing yards | Game |