Published Record
2-2-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Justin Herbert NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Justin Herbert. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
50.0%
Published Plays
4
Modeled Lines Stored
13
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Passing TDs
fanduel · OVER 1.5
Projection 1.5Cleared line 0%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Passing yards
fanduel · OVER 205.5
Projection 231.4Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 23.5
Projection 30.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
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Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Nov 1, 2:05 PM CST
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: OVER +146
Projection1.5
Model win50.2%
No-vig edge+12.0%
Model-implied EV+23.5%
No-vig market38.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 205.5
OVER 205.5 -113
Projection231.4
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.9 above line
Market 205.5
PDR 231.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 231.4 is 25.9 above the 205.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 23.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection30.1
Model win44.6%
No-vig edge-5.4%
Model-implied EV-15.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 5
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -240
Projection1.5
Model win55.0%
No-vig edge-10.9%
Model-implied EV-22.0%
No-vig market65.9%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 199.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection205.9
Model win52.3%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 23.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection29.4
Model win43.7%
No-vig edge-6.3%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 0.5
Model side: OVER -240
Projection1.5
Model win72.7%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+3.0%
No-vig market65.9%
Samples516
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 198.5
OVER 198.5 -114
Projection224.0
Model win59.1%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+11.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified OVER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
25.5 above line
Market 198.5
PDR 224.0
WHY PDR LIKES THE OVER
Projection 224.0 is 25.5 above the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -182
Projection1.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig edge-5.3%
Model-implied EV-15.0%
No-vig market60.2%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 222.5
UNDER 222.5 -114
Projection192.5
Model win64.0%
No-vig edge+14.0%
Model-implied EV+20.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
30.0 below line
Market 222.5
PDR 192.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 192.5 is 30.0 below the 222.5 line.
Model win probability 64.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.0% model win, +14.0% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection28.8
Model win47.9%
No-vig edge-2.1%
Model-implied EV-10.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Passing TDs
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 1.5
Model side: UNDER -122
Projection1.4
Model win56.2%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.3%
No-vig market51.4%
Samples516
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Passing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 223.5
UNDER 223.5 -114
Projection200.3
Model win61.8%
No-vig edge+11.8%
Model-implied EV+16.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples516
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
23.2 below line
Market 223.5
PDR 200.3
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 200.3 is 23.2 below the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 61.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.8% model win, +11.8% no-vig edge, and +16.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | Passing yards | OVER 205.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.4% | WIN · 257 passing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Passing yards | OVER 198.5 | 59.1% | +9.1% | +11.0% | LOSS · 189 passing yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Passing yards | UNDER 222.5 | 64.0% | +14.0% | +20.1% | LOSS · 226 passing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Passing yards | UNDER 223.5 | 61.8% | +11.8% | +16.1% | WIN · 192 passing yards | Game |