Published Record
7-6-0
PLAYER PROFILE
Jonathan Taylor NFL player props & projections
NFL player prop projections, sportsbook lines, model edges, EV, and results for Jonathan Taylor. Browse all players · Week 8 NFL props
2026 PDR published-play results and stored modeled-board lines. Non-qualified lines are shown for context and are not recommendations.
Hit Rate
53.8%
Published Plays
13
Modeled Lines Stored
21
Recent performance vs today's line
Weekly results are shown against today's sportsbook line. PDR's projection is the model signal.
CURRENT WEEK
Rushing yards
fanduel · OVER 50.5
Projection 59.9Cleared line 75%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receptions
fanduel · OVER 2.5
Projection 3.1Cleared line 50%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
CURRENT WEEK
Receiving yards
fanduel · OVER 15.5
Projection 23.0Cleared line 63%
Weekly actualsCurrent linePDR projectionGreen = cleared line · Red = fell short
Like one of these props? Turn the take into a challenge with friends on Buffet Bets.
Challenge a friend →
Modeled game boards
Stored calibration-board detail. Current coverage begins with the snapshots retained in MODEL_DB.
WEEK 8
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
No qualified plays for this game.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
PDR modeled the lines below, but none cleared the publication thresholds.
Rushing yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 50.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection59.9
Model win47.9%
No-vig edge-2.1%
Model-implied EV-9.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER +104
Projection3.1
Model win47.5%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-3.0%
No-vig market45.8%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 15.5
Model side: OVER -113
Projection23.0
Model win43.5%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 7
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 71.5
UNDER 71.5 -114
Projection60.9
Model win74.0%
No-vig edge+24.0%
Model-implied EV+38.9%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
10.6 below line
Market 71.5
PDR 60.9
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 60.9 is 10.6 below the 71.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +38.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 -144
Projection2.2
Model win69.3%
No-vig edge+14.2%
Model-implied EV+17.4%
No-vig market55.1%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.3 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 2.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.2 is 0.3 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 69.3% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +14.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.3% model win, +14.2% no-vig edge, and +17.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 17.5
UNDER 17.5 -114
Projection15.8
Model win68.5%
No-vig edge+18.5%
Model-implied EV+28.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
1.7 below line
Market 17.5
PDR 15.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 15.8 is 1.7 below the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 6
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 89.5
UNDER 89.5 -114
Projection65.2
Model win82.3%
No-vig edge+32.3%
Model-implied EV+54.5%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
24.3 below line
Market 89.5
PDR 65.2
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 65.2 is 24.3 below the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +32.3% no-vig edge, and +54.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 -102
Projection2.5
Model win64.3%
No-vig edge+17.1%
Model-implied EV+27.3%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.0 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 2.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.5 is 0.0 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +27.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 17.5
UNDER 17.5 -114
Projection17.4
Model win66.9%
No-vig edge+16.9%
Model-implied EV+25.7%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.1 below line
Market 17.5
PDR 17.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 17.4 is 0.1 below the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 88.5
UNDER 88.5 -114
Projection62.5
Model win83.5%
No-vig edge+33.5%
Model-implied EV+56.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
26.0 below line
Market 88.5
PDR 62.5
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 62.5 is 26.0 below the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 83.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 83.5% model win, +33.5% no-vig edge, and +56.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -110
Projection3.1
Model win46.9%
No-vig edge-2.1%
Model-implied EV-10.4%
No-vig market49.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 15.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection20.9
Model win40.5%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.0%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 4
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
3 qualified plays for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 90.5
UNDER 90.5 -114
Projection79.8
Model win74.1%
No-vig edge+24.1%
Model-implied EV+39.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
10.7 below line
Market 90.5
PDR 79.8
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 79.8 is 10.7 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Qualified
fanduel · Line 2.5
UNDER 2.5 -102
Projection2.1
Model win70.1%
No-vig edge+22.9%
Model-implied EV+38.7%
No-vig market47.2%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
0.4 below line
Market 2.5
PDR 2.1
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 2.1 is 0.4 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receiving yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 19.5
UNDER 19.5 -114
Projection17.4
Model win68.9%
No-vig edge+18.9%
Model-implied EV+29.4%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
2.1 below line
Market 19.5
PDR 17.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 17.4 is 2.1 below the 19.5 line.
Model win probability 68.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.9% model win, +18.9% no-vig edge, and +29.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
WEEK 3
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 80.5
UNDER 80.5 -114
Projection65.4
Model win76.9%
No-vig edge+26.9%
Model-implied EV+44.3%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
15.1 below line
Market 80.5
PDR 65.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 65.4 is 15.1 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 76.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.9% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +44.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -160
Projection2.8
Model win42.0%
No-vig edge-15.5%
Model-implied EV-31.8%
No-vig market57.5%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 19.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection24.3
Model win39.6%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.6%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
WEEK 2
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
1 qualified play for this game.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Non-qualified modeled lines are also shown for context.
Rushing yards
Qualified
fanduel · Line 88.5
UNDER 88.5 -114
Projection69.4
Model win79.8%
No-vig edge+29.8%
Model-implied EV+49.8%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples796
Qualified UNDER play.
MODEL VS MARKET
19.1 below line
Market 88.5
PDR 69.4
WHY PDR LIKES THE UNDER
Projection 69.4 is 19.1 below the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 79.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 79.8% model win, +29.8% no-vig edge, and +49.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Receptions
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 2.5
Model side: OVER -120
Projection3.1
Model win47.3%
No-vig edge-3.8%
Model-implied EV-13.4%
No-vig market51.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Receiving yards
Did not qualify
fanduel · Line 16.5
Model side: OVER -114
Projection22.6
Model win41.5%
No-vig edge-8.5%
Model-implied EV-22.1%
No-vig market50.0%
Samples2154
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Published qualified history
Only actual PDR recommendations are graded.
| Week | Matchup | Market | Pick | Win | Edge | Model-implied EV | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Rushing yards | UNDER 71.5 | 74.0% | +24.0% | +38.9% | LOSS · 95 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | UNDER 2.5 | 69.3% | +14.2% | +17.4% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Receiving yards | UNDER 17.5 | 68.5% | +18.5% | +28.5% | WIN · 15 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Rushing yards | UNDER 89.5 | 82.3% | +32.3% | +54.5% | LOSS · 94 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | UNDER 2.5 | 64.3% | +17.1% | +27.3% | WIN · 2 receptions | Game |
| Week 6 | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Receiving yards | UNDER 17.5 | 66.9% | +16.9% | +25.7% | LOSS · 57 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 5 | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing yards | UNDER 88.5 | 83.5% | +33.5% | +56.8% | WIN · 45 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Rushing yards | UNDER 90.5 | 74.1% | +24.1% | +39.1% | LOSS · 95 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receptions | UNDER 2.5 | 70.1% | +22.9% | +38.7% | WIN · 1 reception | Game |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Receiving yards | UNDER 19.5 | 68.9% | +18.9% | +29.4% | WIN · 2 receiving yards | Game |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Rushing yards | UNDER 80.5 | 76.9% | +26.9% | +44.3% | WIN · 68 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 2 | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing yards | UNDER 88.5 | 79.8% | +29.8% | +49.8% | LOSS · 92 rushing yards | Game |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Rushing yards | UNDER 76.5 | 77.6% | +27.6% | +45.7% | LOSS · 98 rushing yards | Game |