WEEK 2 · Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
17 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 11-6-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 90.5
fanduel -114
Projection
49.9
Proj. gap
-40.6
Model win
90.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+40.1%
Model-implied EV
+69.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 49.9 is 40.6 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 90.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +40.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 90.1% model win, +40.1% no-vig edge, and +69.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 52 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection
38.1
Proj. gap
-22.4
Model win
85.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.0%
Model-implied EV
+59.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.1 is 22.4 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 85.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.0% model win, +35.0% no-vig edge, and +59.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -112
Projection
2.9
Proj. gap
-1.6
Model win
83.5%
No-vig market
49.4%
No-vig edge
+34.1%
Model-implied EV
+58.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.9 is 1.6 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 83.5% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +34.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.5% model win, +34.1% no-vig edge, and +58.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receptions
WIN
UNDER 248.5
fanduel -114
Projection
196.5
Proj. gap
-52.0
Model win
75.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.8%
Model-implied EV
+42.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 196.5 is 52.0 below the 248.5 line.
Model win probability 75.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.8% model win, +25.8% no-vig edge, and +42.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 248 passing yards
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
+2.1
Model win
74.0%
No-vig market
41.7%
No-vig edge
+32.3%
Model-implied EV
+65.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 2.1 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +32.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +32.3% no-vig edge, and +65.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
UNDER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection
38.2
Proj. gap
-6.3
Model win
72.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.7%
Model-implied EV
+36.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.2 is 6.3 below the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 38 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -125
Projection
7.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
72.2%
No-vig market
51.9%
No-vig edge
+20.3%
Model-implied EV
+29.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 7.0 is 0.5 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +20.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +20.3% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection
4.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
71.5%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+17.8%
Model-implied EV
+24.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.5% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.5% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +24.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
68.8%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+15.1%
Model-implied EV
+19.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.8% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.8% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +19.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
LOSS
OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection
35.7
Proj. gap
+23.2
Model win
68.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.1%
Model-implied EV
+27.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 35.7 is 23.2 above the 12.5 line.
Model win probability 68.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.1% model win, +18.1% no-vig edge, and +27.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 79.5
fanduel -114
Projection
79.5
Proj. gap
-0.0
Model win
66.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.8%
Model-implied EV
+25.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.5 is 0.0 below the 79.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +25.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 142 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -146
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
66.8%
No-vig market
55.5%
No-vig edge
+11.3%
Model-implied EV
+12.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +11.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +11.3% no-vig edge, and +12.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
WIN
OVER 11.5
fanduel -114
Projection
31.8
Proj. gap
+20.3
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 31.8 is 20.3 above the 11.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 63 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 270.5
fanduel -114
Projection
246.2
Proj. gap
-24.3
Model win
62.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.6%
Model-implied EV
+17.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 246.2 is 24.3 below the 270.5 line.
Model win probability 62.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.6% model win, +12.6% no-vig edge, and +17.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 327 passing yards
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -130
Projection
1.9
Proj. gap
+0.4
Model win
59.5%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+6.7%
Model-implied EV
+5.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.9 is 0.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +6.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +6.7% no-vig edge, and +5.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +172
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
+1.3
Model win
59.2%
No-vig market
34.4%
No-vig edge
+24.8%
Model-implied EV
+61.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.2% vs 34.4% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.2% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +61.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
WIN
OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection
31.1
Proj. gap
+16.6
Model win
57.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+7.9%
Model-implied EV
+8.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 31.1 is 16.6 above the 14.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +7.9% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 26 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +128
Projection2.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.4%
No-vig market41.0%
No-vig edge+15.5%
Model-implied EV+28.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.1
Proj. gap+4.6
Model win39.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.6%
Model-implied EV-26.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 74.5
fanduel -114
Projection83.0
Proj. gap+8.5
Model win46.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-12.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -140
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.2%
No-vig market54.6%
No-vig edge+2.6%
Model-implied EV-1.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection64.3
Proj. gap+6.8
Model win42.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-20.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.8%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+15.1%
Model-implied EV+27.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection48.5
Proj. gap+2.0
Model win36.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.9%
Model-implied EV-32.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154