How Prop Drop & Roll works.
The model starts with an independent player projection, compares it with the sportsbook line and price, estimates the probability of each side using historical same-market residuals, and only promotes a side when the current beta qualification policy is satisfied.
What the numbers mean
The model's expected player outcome for that market before comparing it with the sportsbook line.
The estimated probability that the model-selected side beats the posted line, based on historical same-market residual behavior.
Model Win % minus the sportsbook's no-vig implied probability for the same side. This is the probability advantage after removing the book's margin from the two-way price.
The model's probability combined with the offered American price. Positive EV means the modeled probability exceeds the break-even probability implied by that payout.
The raw numerical difference between the projection and sportsbook line. It is useful context, but it is not the same thing as probability edge.
The model has a projection for the market, but the opportunity does not clear every current qualification threshold. PASS is intentional.
Current beta qualification policy
A side is shown as OVER or UNDER only when it clears all four provisional thresholds below. These values are a beta operating policy, not historically optimized sportsbook cutoffs.
Supported player-prop markets
- QB Pass Attempts
- QB Completions
- QB Pass Yards
- QB Pass TDs
- QB Interceptions
- RB Rush Attempts
- RB Rush Yards
- RB Rush TDs
- Receptions
- Receiving Yards
- Receiving TDs
- Total TDs
Historical projection replay
The current projection engine has an exact historical replay covering 14,068 eligible historical rows with zero runtime skips.
Every eligible historical replay row completed successfully.
No eligible historical replay row was skipped because of a runtime failure.
Coming next. Accuracy metrics will be published separately by prop market so yardage, receptions, attempts, and touchdown outcomes are not blended into one mixed-unit number.
Starts with the 2026 regular season. Frozen recommendations will be graded so record, hit rate, ROI, and calibration can be tracked from actual sportsbook opportunities.
What is not certified yet
Prop Drop & Roll does not currently claim a historically backtested sportsbook win rate or ROI.
The projection engine has historical replay validation, but the current recommendation thresholds have not yet been certified against a historical archive of sportsbook lines and prices. Live recommendations will be frozen, graded, and tracked so actual betting-performance evidence can be built over time.