WEEK 5 · Thu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
13 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 9-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -172
Projection
5.0
Proj. gap
+3.5
Model win
94.4%
No-vig market
59.0%
No-vig edge
+35.4%
Model-implied EV
+49.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.0 is 3.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 94.4% vs 59.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 94.4% model win, +35.4% no-vig edge, and +49.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection
51.0
Proj. gap
+38.5
Model win
86.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+36.1%
Model-implied EV
+61.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.0 is 38.5 above the 12.5 line.
Model win probability 86.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.1% model win, +36.1% no-vig edge, and +61.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 18 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 2.5
fanduel -210
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
-1.2
Model win
82.6%
No-vig market
63.2%
No-vig edge
+19.3%
Model-implied EV
+21.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 1.2 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 82.6% vs 63.2% no-vig market probability creates a +19.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 82.6% model win, +19.3% no-vig edge, and +21.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
WIN
OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection
60.0
Proj. gap
+32.5
Model win
81.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+31.1%
Model-implied EV
+52.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.0 is 32.5 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 81.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.1% model win, +31.1% no-vig edge, and +52.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 37 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 80.5
fanduel -114
Projection
66.3
Proj. gap
-14.2
Model win
79.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+29.1%
Model-implied EV
+48.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 66.3 is 14.2 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +124
Projection
4.7
Proj. gap
-0.8
Model win
76.5%
No-vig market
41.7%
No-vig edge
+34.8%
Model-implied EV
+71.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.5% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +34.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.5% model win, +34.8% no-vig edge, and +71.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
UNDER 73.5
fanduel -114
Projection
59.8
Proj. gap
-13.7
Model win
75.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.9%
Model-implied EV
+42.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.8 is 13.7 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +42.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 45 rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 10.5
fanduel -114
Projection
38.1
Proj. gap
+27.6
Model win
75.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.1%
Model-implied EV
+40.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.1 is 27.6 above the 10.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 10 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection
54.2
Proj. gap
+22.7
Model win
66.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.9%
Model-implied EV
+25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.2 is 22.7 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 38 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -122
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
66.5%
No-vig market
51.4%
No-vig edge
+15.1%
Model-implied EV
+21.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +21.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection
52.9
Proj. gap
+21.4
Model win
64.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+14.7%
Model-implied EV
+21.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.9 is 21.4 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 90 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 263.5
fanduel -114
Projection
234.1
Proj. gap
-29.4
Model win
63.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.8%
Model-implied EV
+19.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 234.1 is 29.4 below the 263.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +19.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 316 passing yards
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel +112
Projection
4.9
Proj. gap
+1.4
Model win
60.1%
No-vig market
44.1%
No-vig edge
+15.9%
Model-implied EV
+27.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 60.1% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +15.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.1% model win, +15.9% no-vig edge, and +27.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.0
Proj. gap+16.5
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +108
Projection3.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.7%
No-vig market44.9%
No-vig edge-7.2%
Model-implied EV-21.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection37.2
Proj. gap+9.7
Model win47.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.9%
Model-implied EV-11.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -172
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.4%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-2.6%
Model-implied EV-10.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.7
Proj. gap+7.2
Model win43.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.0%
Model-implied EV-19.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +120
Projection3.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.5%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154