WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

6 qualified model plays · 15 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-4-0
← Back to Week 5
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 76.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +27.1% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +45.5% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 90.5
fanduel -114
Projection 60.8
Proj. gap -29.7
Model win 85.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.8%
Model-implied EV +61.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.8 is 29.7 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 85.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 85.8% model win, +35.8% no-vig edge, and +61.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 151 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Trey McBride

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 80.5
fanduel -114
Projection 64.0
Proj. gap -16.5
Model win 80.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.5%
Model-implied EV +51.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.0 is 16.5 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 80.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.5% model win, +30.5% no-vig edge, and +51.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 66 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Michael Wilson

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection 4.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.4%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +22.6%
Model-implied EV +33.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +22.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +22.6% no-vig edge, and +33.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jacoby Brissett

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 270.5
fanduel -114
Projection 224.0
Proj. gap -46.5
Model win 74.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +39.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 224.0 is 46.5 below the 270.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +39.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 292 passing yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Trey McBride

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 7.5
fanduel +112
Projection 6.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 72.9%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +28.8%
Model-implied EV +54.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.9 is 0.6 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 72.9% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +28.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.9% model win, +28.8% no-vig edge, and +54.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jameson Williams

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel -108
Projection 5.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 69.6%
No-vig market 48.6%
No-vig edge +21.0%
Model-implied EV +34.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.3 is 1.8 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +34.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -160
Projection7.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.5%
No-vig market57.5%
No-vig edge-4.0%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection82.6
Proj. gap+4.1
Model win38.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.1%
Model-implied EV-27.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Isaac TeSlaa

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +118
Projection3.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.6%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge+7.7%
Model-implied EV+10.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Isaac TeSlaa

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection35.4
Proj. gap+8.9
Model win45.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jacoby Brissett

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection1.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win59.5%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge+5.7%
Model-implied EV+3.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection4.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.7%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge-12.1%
Model-implied EV-27.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 36.5
fanduel -114
Projection44.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win44.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-17.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jameson Williams

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection67.8
Proj. gap+16.3
Model win57.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+7.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jared Goff

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 2.5
fanduel -210
Projection1.8
Proj. gap-0.7
Model win69.4%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge+6.1%
Model-implied EV+2.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jared Goff

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 280.5
fanduel -114
Projection283.9
Proj. gap+3.4
Model win50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -144
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win52.1%
No-vig market55.1%
No-vig edge-3.0%
Model-implied EV-11.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection42.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win44.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-17.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Wilson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection67.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win33.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.4%
Model-implied EV-36.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam LaPorta

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -172
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.4%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-19.6%
Model-implied EV-37.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam LaPorta

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 52.5
fanduel -114
Projection60.9
Proj. gap+8.4
Model win45.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →