WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 7:30 AM CST

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons

11 qualified model plays · 10 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 11 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 11 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 70.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +19.6% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +30.2% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tee Higgins

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection 59.7
Proj. gap -16.8
Model win 80.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.7%
Model-implied EV +51.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.7 is 16.8 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 80.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.7% model win, +30.7% no-vig edge, and +51.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Drake London

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -102
Projection 4.3
Proj. gap -1.2
Model win 79.2%
No-vig market 47.2%
No-vig edge +32.0%
Model-implied EV +56.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 79.2% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +32.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.2% model win, +32.0% no-vig edge, and +56.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Tee Higgins

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection 4.3
Proj. gap -1.2
Model win 79.2%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +26.3%
Model-implied EV +40.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 79.2% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +26.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.2% model win, +26.3% no-vig edge, and +40.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Drake London

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection 64.4
Proj. gap -14.1
Model win 79.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +29.0%
Model-implied EV +48.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.4 is 14.1 below the 78.5 line.
Model win probability 79.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.0% model win, +29.0% no-vig edge, and +48.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Bijan Robinson

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 92.5
fanduel -114
Projection 80.2
Proj. gap -12.3
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.3%
Model-implied EV +41.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 80.2 is 12.3 below the 92.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +41.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#6 MODEL PLAY

Kyle Pitts

Receptions
Pending
OVER 3.5
fanduel -162
Projection 5.6
Proj. gap +2.1
Model win 74.2%
No-vig market 57.9%
No-vig edge +16.4%
Model-implied EV +20.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.6 is 2.1 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 57.9% no-vig market probability creates a +16.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +16.4% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Samaje Perine

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection 41.7
Proj. gap +24.2
Model win 68.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.5%
Model-implied EV +28.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.7 is 24.2 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#8 MODEL PLAY

Kyle Pitts

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection 59.0
Proj. gap +18.5
Model win 60.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.8%
Model-implied EV +14.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.0 is 18.5 above the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 60.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.8% model win, +10.8% no-vig edge, and +14.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

Chase Brown

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 50.5
fanduel -114
Projection 69.2
Proj. gap +18.7
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.7%
Model-implied EV +13.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.2 is 18.7 above the 50.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#10 MODEL PLAY

Michael Penix Jr.

Passing TDs
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -120
Projection 1.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 59.5%
No-vig market 51.0%
No-vig edge +8.5%
Model-implied EV +9.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 51.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#11 MODEL PLAY

Joe Burrow

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 270.5
fanduel -114
Projection 257.4
Proj. gap -13.1
Model win 57.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +7.8%
Model-implied EV +8.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 257.4 is 13.1 below the 270.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +8.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bijan Robinson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -180
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+1.7
Model win67.2%
No-vig market60.1%
No-vig edge+7.2%
Model-implied EV+4.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bijan Robinson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection37.8
Proj. gap+15.3
Model win55.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.9%
Model-implied EV+5.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chase Brown

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win38.6%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-13.0%
Model-implied EV-29.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chase Brown

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.9
Proj. gap+9.4
Model win46.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.6%
Model-implied EV-12.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -125
Projection6.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win40.1%
No-vig market51.9%
No-vig edge-11.8%
Model-implied EV-27.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection80.3
Proj. gap+3.8
Model win38.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.6%
Model-implied EV-27.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahan Dotson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -162
Projection2.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win50.8%
No-vig market57.9%
No-vig edge-7.1%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahan Dotson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection30.1
Proj. gap+3.6
Model win37.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.1%
Model-implied EV-28.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Joe Burrow

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +140
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win50.8%
No-vig market39.0%
No-vig edge+11.8%
Model-implied EV+21.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Penix Jr.

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 219.5
fanduel -114
Projection211.1
Proj. gap-8.4
Model win55.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+4.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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