WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

6 qualified model plays · 11 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-2-0
← Back to Week 5
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +19.3% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +30.3% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.8
Proj. gap +27.3
Model win 74.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.4%
Model-implied EV +39.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.8 is 27.3 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 74.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.4% model win, +24.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 15 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 57.3
Proj. gap +25.8
Model win 72.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.3%
Model-implied EV +35.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.3 is 25.8 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 72.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.3% model win, +22.3% no-vig edge, and +35.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 21 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Brock Purdy

Passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -108
Projection 2.4
Proj. gap +0.9
Model win 71.9%
No-vig market 48.6%
No-vig edge +23.3%
Model-implied EV +38.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.9% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.9% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +38.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 2 passing TDs
#4 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection 32.0
Proj. gap -3.5
Model win 70.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +20.1%
Model-implied EV +31.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 32.0 is 3.5 below the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 15 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

George Kittle

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection 57.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 67.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.1%
Model-implied EV +26.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.0 is 0.5 below the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +26.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 24 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 53.5
fanduel -114
Projection 70.9
Proj. gap +17.4
Model win 58.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.7%
Model-implied EV +10.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.9 is 17.4 above the 53.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 68 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -152
Projection3.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.7%
No-vig market56.3%
No-vig edge-7.6%
Model-implied EV-19.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection36.3
Proj. gap+11.8
Model win50.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Brock Purdy

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 225.5
fanduel -114
Projection235.1
Proj. gap+9.6
Model win52.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Christian McCaffrey

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -125
Projection4.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win40.4%
No-vig market51.9%
No-vig edge-11.5%
Model-implied EV-27.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -108
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.5%
No-vig market48.6%
No-vig edge+7.9%
Model-implied EV+8.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.4%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-6.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

George Kittle

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -138
Projection5.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.1%
No-vig market54.2%
No-vig edge-7.1%
Model-implied EV-18.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -130
Projection7.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.2%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge-7.6%
Model-implied EV-20.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 93.5
fanduel -114
Projection96.5
Proj. gap+3.0
Model win37.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Mike Evans

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -180
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win49.1%
No-vig market60.1%
No-vig edge-11.0%
Model-implied EV-23.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Mike Evans

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection58.6
Proj. gap+10.1
Model win47.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.2%
Model-implied EV-10.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →