WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

13 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 7-6-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 13 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +20.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +30.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection 76.3
Proj. gap +43.8
Model win 91.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +41.9%
Model-implied EV +72.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 76.3 is 43.8 above the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 91.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.9% model win, +41.9% no-vig edge, and +72.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 53 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Elic Ayomanor

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection 53.7
Proj. gap +36.2
Model win 85.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.6%
Model-implied EV +60.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.7 is 36.2 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 85.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.6% model win, +35.6% no-vig edge, and +60.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 17 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receptions
WIN
OVER 3.5
fanduel -154
Projection 5.9
Proj. gap +2.4
Model win 79.5%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +22.8%
Model-implied EV +31.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.9 is 2.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 79.5% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +22.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.5% model win, +22.8% no-vig edge, and +31.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tyjae Spears

Receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -182
Projection 3.7
Proj. gap +2.2
Model win 75.9%
No-vig market 60.4%
No-vig edge +15.5%
Model-implied EV +17.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 2.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 60.4% no-vig market probability creates a +15.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +15.5% no-vig edge, and +17.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Woody Marks

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection 53.1
Proj. gap +28.6
Model win 74.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.2%
Model-implied EV +39.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.1 is 28.6 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +39.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 62 rushing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection 42.6
Proj. gap +25.1
Model win 71.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.3%
Model-implied EV +33.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 42.6 is 25.1 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +21.3% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 65 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Cam Ward

Passing TDs
LOSS
OVER 0.5
fanduel -166
Projection 1.3
Proj. gap +0.8
Model win 70.2%
No-vig market 58.3%
No-vig edge +11.9%
Model-implied EV +12.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.8 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +11.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +11.9% no-vig edge, and +12.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
#8 MODEL PLAY

Dalton Schultz

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -144
Projection 4.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 69.8%
No-vig market 55.1%
No-vig edge +14.7%
Model-implied EV +18.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +18.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#9 MODEL PLAY

David Montgomery

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection 41.7
Proj. gap -4.8
Model win 68.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.5%
Model-implied EV +28.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.7 is 4.8 below the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 11 rushing yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Tony Pollard

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 52.5
fanduel -114
Projection 75.2
Proj. gap +22.7
Model win 67.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.2%
Model-implied EV +26.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 75.2 is 22.7 above the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 67.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.2% model win, +17.2% no-vig edge, and +26.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 52 rushing yards
#11 MODEL PLAY

Elic Ayomanor

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -125
Projection 3.2
Proj. gap +1.7
Model win 66.2%
No-vig market 51.9%
No-vig edge +14.2%
Model-implied EV +19.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 1.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 66.2% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +14.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.2% model win, +14.2% no-vig edge, and +19.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#12 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 239.5
fanduel -114
Projection 210.2
Proj. gap -29.3
Model win 63.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.8%
Model-implied EV +19.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 210.2 is 29.3 below the 239.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +19.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 261 passing yards
#13 MODEL PLAY

Tyjae Spears

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection 34.1
Proj. gap +19.6
Model win 61.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.6%
Model-implied EV +15.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 34.1 is 19.6 above the 14.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 0 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -146
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.2%
No-vig market55.5%
No-vig edge+0.7%
Model-implied EV-5.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cam Ward

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 192.5
fanduel -114
Projection193.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win49.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection44.9
Proj. gap+7.4
Model win43.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-18.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Gunnar Helm

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -118
Projection3.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.9%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge-1.7%
Model-implied EV-9.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Gunnar Helm

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection23.1
Proj. gap+5.6
Model win40.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-23.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tyjae Spears

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection25.2
Proj. gap+15.7
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -158
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win61.6%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge+4.4%
Model-implied EV+0.6%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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